The Buffalo Bills sparked their comeback against the Cincinnati Bengals thanks to back-to-back interceptions of Joe Burrow. But that fact can’t discredit the Herculean effort by Josh Allen to keep his team within striking distance in the first place and in the end, when it mattered most.
The reigning NFL MVP earned the familiar chants from the stands at Highmark Stadium for Allen to win it again. His unfathomable connection with Khalil Shakir for an early touchdown on a fourth-and-4, a 40-yard touchdown gallop through the snow, and a 17-yard scramble to ice the game on a third-and-15 all bear the mark of an MVP candidate rising to the occasion in clutch December moments.
But Allen isn’t the favorite to win the award for a second-straight season. He trails Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye no matter where you look. But that doesn’t mean he is out of the race just yet.
Buffalo Bills' star QB Josh Allen still has a path to the NFL MVP award
Former NFL quarterback turned Pro Football Talk analyst Chris Simms said on PFT Live Monday morning that Allen is the “modern-day John Elway,” putting the cape on for his team in a way that many quarterbacks throughout the league aren’t able to replicate.
“I know he's not going to win the MVP, but he's kind of the MVP,” Simms said. “Nobody's more valuable to their football team than Josh Allen.”
Simms made the point that Elway often didn’t have the type of help to capitalize on his talents, much like Allen does today. Elway won his 1987 MVP award without a 1,00-yard rusher or receiver at his disposal. Allen is in a similar situation. His help from James Cook, who could still wind up leading the league in rushing, and Dalton Kincaid isn’t exactly Hall of Fame-level just yet.
Nonetheless, that’s partly why Allen has an even stronger argument after Week 14 to claim the MVP award once again.
As NFL.com columnist Jeffri Chadiha pointed out in his article discussing the probabilities for the top MVP candidates, Matthew Stafford has two tough matchups with the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks left on the schedule, while Maye has ridden the benefit of an easy schedule all season. Allen’s window exists with his own tough draws against New England and Philadelphia.
“We realized a long time ago that Buffalo’s defense isn’t anything close to the reliable unit we’ve come to expect under head coach Sean McDermott. That means the Bills must win by relying more on shootouts, which is something Allen does as well as any quarterback in the league,” Chadiha wrote. “Allen can make some noise if the Bills beat the Patriots and Eagles in the final four weeks of the season. Those are high-profile games against teams with strong defenses.”
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While Allen has thrown more interceptions this season than last, he is set to exceed his 2024 statistical performance in nearly every category, all while taking more than double as many sacks as last season. With the framing and understanding that the Bills’ roster surrounding him is the defining catalyst of the team’s inefficiencies, it only strengthens Allen’s positioning for the award given to the “Most Valuable” player.
Stafford has Puka Nacua, a volume receiver who made early-season noise in the Offensive Player of the Year race, and the league’s third-ranked scoring defense. Allen doesn’t have any of that.
Maye has played one playoff-positioned team since facing Buffalo in Week 5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, who have since lost four of their last five. Buffalo played teams gunning for a playoff spot in each of their last seven games since the BYE week.
Allen makes his mark in this season’s MVP race by doing much of the same type of work he pulled out against Cincinnati. Against all odds, despite everything else not going Buffalo’s way, he puts on the cape and makes the magic happen for his team.
While Buffalo needs a lot of miracles to win the AFC East, if Allen and the Bills can stamp New England with an extra loss and topple the reigning Super Bowl champions to close out their season, it would make Buffalo seem much more formidable heading into the postseason. Naturally, in that case, Allen’s chances of reclaiming the MVP award could, and likely should, skyrocket.