Where did the Buffalo Bills land on ESPN's 2024 Football Power Index rankings?

The Buffalo Bills have been a hot topic this offseason with the drama surrounding the trade of Stefon Diggs and the loss of long-time stalwarts. So where did the Bills land on ESPN's first Football Power Index rankings of 2924?
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills / Timothy T Ludwig/GettyImages

It's become the era of analytics in the NFL. Every major media site these days has an analytics team, and uses it to make what you would think are educated guesses, or predictions. ESPN is one such media outlet, which produces predictions based on what they refer to as the Football Power Index. The folks at ESPN use this to determine win/loss records, division winners, playoff participants, and of course the Super Bowl. They take it a step further though and give us the odds of specific Super Bowl matchups too. For the Bills, the most likely showdown in the Super Bowl would be with the San Francisco 49ers, putting the potential of this matchup at three percent. For some context, the most likely matchup in next season's Super Bowl was the Kansas City Chiefs and 49ers again, coming in at a six percent chance. The Bills and 49ers Super Bowl prediction is the sixth most likely matchup according to ESPN.

Buffalo's overall rank according to ESPN's FPI is fifth in the league, and number three in the AFC. I find it funny that so many of the talking heads have been putting the Bills down every chance they get. Saying they are done or they will have their worst season in five years, but analytics says otherwise. I tend to lean towards facts and numbers that analytics utilize rather than some random media personalities. I digress, let's get back to the numbers and rankings. Based on the Bills' FPI rank, they are expected to win their sixth consecutive division title, giving them a 44 percent chance, compared to the Dolphins at 31 percent, and the Jets at 25 percent.

"That breakdown is interesting given the hype and cautious optimism around the Jets -- and because New York has the easiest schedule of the three teams while Buffalo has the hardest. Fundamentally, the FPI believes the Bills will have a high-end offense even without receiver Stefon Diggs, with Josh Allen playing behind a solid offensive line."

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics

The Buffalo Bills are still one of the favorites to reach the conference title game.

The predictions don't stop there either. As far as the conference title goes, Buffalo has a three percent chance or better of facing the Bengals (3%), the Ravens (5%), or the Chiefs (6%). In case you're wondering, the Chiefs versus the Ravens is the highest possible matchup at nine percent. ESPN's FPI is updated throughout the season, and it will be interesting to see how this will change between now and the start of the playoffs.


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