After another disappointing finish to the 2025 season, the Buffalo Bills are looking to get back on top of the AFC East this season. The Bills are in good shape with Josh Allen at quarterback, a new coaching staff led by Joe Brady and even a new stadium set to be opened this fall. But that optimism took a hit when the New England Patriots officially acquired A.J. Brown in a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday.
Brown’s arrival in Foxborough will be felt throughout the NFL, but specifically will be felt by the Bills. DraftKings Sportsbook was one Sportsbook that already has adjusted for Brown’s impact, dropping the Bills from -130 favorites to win the division to -125 and conversely raising the Patriots’ odds from +130 to +125.
With the trade being common knowledge since the offseason began, there’s a good chance that the previous odds already had Brown becoming a Patriot in mind. But it still represents a more difficult task for the Bills as they look to climb atop the East again in 2026.
Bills quest to win division gets more difficult after Patriots’ A.J. Brown trade
The Patriots were able to take advantage of a weak schedule to rise to the top of the AFC East last year, but they did so without a No. 1 receiver. While former Bills receiver Stefon Diggs led the way with 1,013 receiving yards and four touchdowns, New England’s next-best receiver was Kayshon Boutte, who had 551 yards and six touchdowns.
As a result, the Patriots signed Romeo Doubs in free agency and drove the point home by adding Brown. While Drake Maye’s improvement also remains a concern, Buffalo should be well-equipped to handle the upgrades after finishing fourth in the NFL with 5.3 net yards allowed per attempt.Â
The Bills had a few departures in the secondary including Taron Johnson, Tre’Davious White and Cameron Lewis and losing Sean McDermott also makes Buffalo’s pass defense a bit of an unknown. But there’s enough holdovers including Maxwell Hairston and Christian Benford, who are slated to start and a key addition with second-round pick Davison Igbinosun providing depth.
There’s also a rare schedule advantage for the Bills, who will be playing a second-place slate. While that includes matchups with the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens, there is an advantage compared to the Patriots, who will face the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers.
That’s not to say things won’t be a little harder with two matchups against Brown coming in Week 4 (Oct. 4) and Week 13 (Dec. 6). But in the end, the five-cent difference seems fitting and keeps the Bills as the frontrunner to win the division.
Disclaimer: Odds are refreshed periodically and are subject to change.
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