The Buffalo Bills are set to take on the top seed in the AFC, the Denver Broncos, for the right to head to the AFC Championship. Certainly, it’s the biggest test Buffalo has faced all season, and the way Denver is constructed, there isn’t much room for answers.
Nonetheless, the Broncos aren’t a perfect team. There are kinks in the armor, even for a team that lost just one game after Week 3.
The Bills are built to exploit those weaknesses. So, let’s dive into three weak spots on the Broncos’ roster that Buffalo can attack to punch their ticket to the AFC Championship.
3 areas where the Buffalo Bills can flip the script on the Denver Broncos
Attack the middle of the field in the passing game
I’ll concede that Dan Orlovsky gave this one out for free earlier this week. The Broncos’ defense is incredibly talented, but it has weak spots, particularly in the middle of the field in the passing game.
Naturally, with an elite pass rush and a dominant duo of boundary corners in Riley Moss and Patrick Surtain II, Buffalo won’t be afforded many opportunities to push the ball deep down the field. Luckily for them, they haven’t been particularly great at that this season anyway. They are, however, one of the better teams in the league at relying on pass-catching tight ends and running backs to overcome the weaknesses out wide.
Josh Allen will want to pick on 32-year-old linebacker Alex Singleton and safety Talanoa Hufanga when they are matched up in man coverage with his backs and tight ends. Those two have given up more than a third of the passing yardage surrendered by a stingy defense. Quarterbacks have their highest passer rating when targeting Singleton and Hufanga, and neither recorded an interception this season, seeing the most targets on the team by far without a pick.
Allen made a point to take what Jacksonville gave him and timed his shots downfield well. He and the Bills’ offense face a similar challenge this week with a slightly different method to solve it.
Win fourth downs between the 30s
The Broncos' offense is strong, but it isn’t nearly as strong as the defense. Provided Buffalo’s defense shows up, points could be at a premium in this contest. And if that’s the case, fourth downs between the 30s could decide the game.
There are two reasons the Bills have the advantage here. The first is the inconsistencies of the Broncos’ kicker, Will Lutz, from distance this season. Luts has made just seven of his 13 attempts from 40+ yards in 2025. Last year, he was 16-18 from that range.
Still, the Broncos haven’t shown that they can convert fourth downs consistently enough to keep Lutz off the field in those situations, converting on half of their 20 attempts in 2025.
Secondly, the Broncos' defense isn’t quite as strong on fourth downs as the Bills’ offense. Denver finished 2025 with a 51.9% conversion rate on fourth downs defensively. The Bills’ offense converted on 59.4% of their fourth down attempts. It’s a slim margin, but in the playoffs, most margins are.
Bearing all of this in mind, the Bills can take advantage around midfield on both sides of the ball, both by extending drives and forcing Denver to decide between making fourth-down conversions or trusting their inconsistent kicker.
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Put pressure on backup Alex Forsyth at center
The Denver Broncos head into the Divisional Round with just four players on their injury report. Buffalo finished the practice week with five players listed as questionable, and two others ruled out.
While Buffalo isn’t winning the availability matchup by any stretch, there is one key absence in the middle of Denver’s offense that doesn’t show up on the injury report that the Bills can try to exploit. Denver starting center Luke Wattenberg was placed on Injured Reserve after Christmas and isn’t eligible to return until next week at the earliest. Alex Forsyth is his replacement. He played 72 snaps in Week 17 when he replaced Watttenberg, earning the game ball in the process.
Still, Forsyth is the backup for a reason. With a second-year quarterback behind him, flustering these two with pressure can swing the game wildly in Buffalo’s favor if executed properly.
Hopefully, now that he’s on the active roster, Ed Oliver can play his part in disrupting the interior of the line of scrimmage.