Bills' blueprint to beating Bo Nix and the Broncos just became painfully obvious

The Buffalo Bills know that when they take the field on Saturday against the Denver Broncos with a shot at a trip to the AFC Championship on the line, nothing will come easy. The Broncos carry an elite defense that has shut down opposing offenses in both phases all season, and an offense led by quarterback Bo Nix that can carve just about anyone up, too.

The Broncos didn’t get the No. 1 seed for nothing. Still, they’re far from perfect and have shown some kinks in the armor. The Bills will have their advantages, especially when the ball is in Josh Allen’s hands.

While the Bills’ defense is more inconsistent, it carries its own strengths, too. If they meet the challenge properly, they hold the blueprint to making sure the Bills leave Denver with their next destination being the AFC Championship game.

Buffalo Bills can force Bo Nix into uncomfortably familiar territory

While the Broncos are a fantastic team, it can’t be lost on anyone that Nix is in just his second season. While he’s been overwhelmingly impressive in his first two seasons overall, he’s had his moments that were a bit more reminiscent of his time at Auburn instead of Oregon. Those moments have fueled an intriguing stat: Bo Nix is just 1-8 against teams that scored 17 or more points and finished their season with a winning record.

Naturally, it’s easier to win when your defense doesn’t often give up more than 17 points. In nine games this season, the Broncos held their opponents to 17 points or less, 10 times under 20. They won all of those games. The Broncos themselves scored more than 17 in all but two games in 2025.

However, the stat holds true. Nix and the Broncos lost seven games last season to teams that finished with winning records, and six of them scored more than 17 points. This season, the Broncos lost just three games, two to teams that finished with winning records, and both scored more than 17 points. The only team Nix has beaten in his NFL career that finished with a winning record and scored more than 17 points was the Green Bay Packers at home in mid-December.

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Based on the history, the Bills have their blueprint: score more than 17 points. Of course, it’s not really that simple. Nix and the Broncos have beaten teams that had winning records at the time or otherwise and scored more than 17 points. They did so four times in 2025, including the Packers, though not at all last year.

That said, the Bills know just as well that these aren’t the 2024 Broncos. Scoring 17 is a good benchmark, sure, but only if points are at a premium. That’s a tall task against a Broncos’ offense that averaged 23.6 points per game.