The Buffalo Bills are slight underdogs heading into their Divisional Round matchup with the Denver Broncos. But that’s just what the mathematicians in the desert think about the game. Bills Mafia knows that with Josh Allen under center, the Bills always have a fighting chance.
Still, this is a different Broncos team than the one Allen and the Bills knocked out of the playoffs in the Wild Card last year. Last year, Buffalo outgained Denver by 249 yards. This year, the Bills might be lucky just to get 249 total yards.
The Broncos’ defense has been one of the most dominant units in the NFL this season, ranking 2nd in yards allowed, 3rd in points, and leading the league in sacks with 11 more than the next team.
Still, the game isn’t played on paper, and the schematic matchups week to week can often produce far from expected results. This week’s matchup between Allen’s offense and the Denver defense is a classic unstoppable force meets immovable object scenario. And ESPN NFL Analyst Dan Orlovsky is going with the unstoppable force.
ESPN's Dan Orlovsky explains why Bills' offense is built to attack Denver’s weak spots defensively
“They’re built to beat Denver, Buffalo is. And this was the best matchup that they could have gotten,” Orlovsky said on Get Up Thursday morning.
“One, structurally, you don’t want to throw the ball against those corners in Denver, Moss and Surtain. You want to attack the linebackers. No one plays more man coverage in the NFL than the Denver Broncos’ defense. No quarterback and no offense is better in the NFL at throwing the ball to their running backs and tight ends than Buffalo. This is the perfect matchup for Buffalo.”
To Orlovsky’s point, the interior of Denver’s defense is where it’s weakest in the passing game. Quarterbacks have their highest passer rating when targeting receivers covered by 32-year-old linebacker Alex Singleton, 122.9, and safety Talanoa Hufanga, 103.4.
Those two players have given up over a third of the passing yards Denver has allowed this season. With 70 targets against Singleton and 58 against Hufanga, those interior players have by far the most targets without an interception on the Denver defense. The next highest target share among Broncos defenders without an interception is 24.
With those two players being matched up with Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and James Cook in man coverage, it’s easy to see where Buffalo draws its advantage. Of course, that does mean Allen will have to nickel and dime down the field with short passes to these three as efficiently as he can. The Broncos had four players with at least seven sacks this season, and Nick Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper, who combined for 22, will be screaming off the edge against any drop-back passes looking for yards downfield.
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The Broncos aren’t shortsighted enough to ignore that even their impressive defense is facing a difficult challenge of its own with Allen coming to their house, though. Head coach Sean Payton publicly gave fans specific instructions on how to disrupt Allen and the Bills' offense this week, after all.
Allen has answers for Denver’s defense, and the inverse is true in its own respect. That’s what makes it a great matchup from the start. Hopefully, though, Orlovsky’s assessment of who it favors proves true, and the Bills can march on to the AFC Championship.