They meet again. For the fourth time in the last 5 years, the Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. The Bills travel to Arrowhead Sunday night in search of their first postseason win against the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid led Chiefs.
Kansas City is looking to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl in hopes to be the first team in NFL history to win three straight. Josh Allen and the Bills stand in the way of that.
Although these teams have played eight times total in the last 5 years, we’re going to take a look at the three playoff games. Allen is 0-3 against Mahomes in the playoffs, but he really has not been the reason for the losses. Let’s take a look at the things that Buffalo will need to do differently on Sunday night if they want to book a trip to New Orleans.
Must Haves on Defense:
Slow down the run game:
Mahomes is always the biggest concern when playing the Chiefs, but the Bills inability to stop the run in their last three playoff meetings has allowed the pass attack to be even more lethal. It’s a statement that the Bills defense needs to make early and often in this game.
In those three games, the Bills have allowed the KC offense to establish the run both with steady chunk yardage plays, as well as with explosive plays (we’ll get to that later). The stats will show the lack of push up front and the blueprint for disaster.
2021 AFC Championship Game (L, 38-24): 114 yards, 4.6 yards per carry (YPC), 2 TD
2022 Divisional Game (L, 42-36): 182 yards, 6.7 YPC, 2 TD
2024 Divisional Game (L, 27-24): 146 yards, 6.1 YPC, 1 TD
If the Bills defense wants to stay ahead of the sticks and make the KC offense a bit more predictable, they will need to have a much better grip on the run game.
Limit the explosive plays:
While the Chiefs' offense is a machine and will take what is there, they also have the playmakers to break a game wide open with a huge play down the field. This current version of the team is no different.
Surrendering explosive plays (plays that go for ten or more yards) have been a problem for the Buffalo defense this season. Although they have managed to reach the AFC Championship game, it’s a major cause for concern and it was evident in their last three playoff meetings with the Chiefs.
2021 AFC Championship Game: 13 explosive plays, 6.9 total yards per play (YPP)
2022 Divisional Game: 15 explosive plays, 7.6 total YPP
2024 Divisional Game: 10 explosive plays, 7.7 total YPP
Slowing down the run game will play a major factor in cutting down these plays, but the Bills secondary needs to be aware of players like Xavier Worthy and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown at all times.
Third down defense:
Third down defense is always a major factor in games like these. Will the Bills defense be able to get off the field? In recent history (these three meetings are no different), Mahomes and the Chiefs have been fantastic in these spots. This season, they finished third in the NFL with a 48% conversion rate on third down. Allowing KC to sustain long scoring drives has been the downfall for almost all of their opponents this year, and it has been an issue for the Buffalo defense in their playoff matchups.
2021 AFC Championship Game: 6-10 on third down, 1 empty drive*
2022 Divisional Game: 8-13 on third down, 3 empty drives*
2024 Divisional Game: 1-5 on third down, 2 empty drives*
(* - no points: excludes drives meant to run clock for end of half/game)
Although last year's game was a bit different, the writing is on the wall; the Chiefs were ahead of the sticks the entire game and rarely got to a third down.
One thing that the defense needs to do a better job of in these situations is to not let Mahomes convert these with his legs. In the playoffs, Mahomes has 18 rushes for 93 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. Something to keep an eye on Sunday. Will they deploy a spy?
Limit Travis Kelce:
It’s easier said than done to slow down a first ballot Hall of Famer and potentially the best tight end of all time. While Kelce turns it up for the postseason regardless of the opponent, he has feasted on the Bills come playoff time.
2021 AFC Championship Game: 13 catches, 118 yards, 2 TD
2022 Divisional Game: 8 catches, 96 yards, 1 TD
2024 Divisional Game: 5 catches, 75 yards, 2 TD
With the Bills playing primarily zone defense, Kelce has been their kryptonite. His connection with Mahomes, his ability to find the soft spots and his speed/size make him a true matchup nightmare for this defense.
The Bills have tried everything over the years. Coverage with an off-ball linebacker like Matt Milano. Coverage with a larger defensive back like Siran Neal. Coverage with a quicker slot corner like Taron Johnson. Coverage with a physical safety like Jordan Poyer. Nothing has worked.
I’m not sure that Bobby Babich will have the answers on Sunday, but something has to change in order for this defense to survive the potential Mahomes-Kelce onslaught.
Must haves on offense:
Establish the run:
One thing that makes this Bills team different from years past is their rushing attack. James Cook, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson have had success all season and it’s given the Bills a different offensive identity. The offensive line has established themselves as one of the best in the league, and they will need to continue getting that kind of push on Sunday.
I mentioned earlier that in these three losses, Allen has not been the one to blame. He has tried to will this team to victory with superman like performances game in and game out, and the rushing stats support that.
2021 AFC Championship Game
- Allen: 7 rushes for 88 yards
- Rest of team: 11 rushes for 41 yards
2022 Divisional Game
- Allen: 11 rushes for 68 yards
- Rest of team: 13 rushes for 41 yards
2024 Divisional Game
- Allen: 12 rushes for 72 yards
- Rest of team: 27 rushes for 110 yards
Of course Allen is going to utilize his legs and do anything he can to win this game, but establishing the run game with the three headed monster in the backfield is going to unlock the full potential of this offense and keep the Kansas City defense on their heels.
Keep a clean pocket
Keeping a focus on the offensive line, keeping Allen upright is paramount. While sacks have been few and far between this season, Kansas City has been known to bring some pressure and likes to get in Allen’s face.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has cemented himself in this league as an aggressive play caller, and their last three playoff meetings were no different. Bringing the pass rush and disguising coverages is a staple of his, so the offensive line will need to give Allen as much time as possible to make the right decisions and take what the defense is giving him.
Pass Catchers:
Last year’s divisional game has been in the minds of Bills’ fans since it ended, and other than the fake punt and the Tyler Bass field goal, they likely remember all of the dropped passes.
In total, the Bills had six drops in that game, some in massive situations (thanks Stefon Diggs). With a mainly new cast of characters this year, Allen and the offense will need to deploy the “everyone eats” mentality more than ever on Sunday night. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady is in the biggest week of his life and putting together the game plan of a lifetime, but it will come down to the players on the field making the plays when they matter.
The connections, the rivalry, the storylines, the quarterbacks. For the last five years, the AFC has been centered around these two teams. Something feels different about this game, but the Bills will need to change some things this time around if they want to exercise their demons, beat the boogeyman that is Patrick Mahomes and clinch their spot in the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994.