All eyes will be on Highmark Stadium this Sunday as the Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round. In likely the most anticipated game of the season, MVP front runners Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will meet for the second time this year and the sixth time in their careers.
Jackson holds the edge overall (3-2), but Allen has won their only playoff meeting, a 17-3 win in the 2021 covid-affected divisional round. The teams look quite a bit different now, but one thing remains the same, they both still have a lot to prove in the playoffs.
As we look to Sunday’s game, there are three key matchups to watch that will ultimately decide the outcome.
Bills’ run defense vs Ravens’ rushing attack
It took one offensive play for the Ravens to establish their dominance on the ground back in Week 4. An 87 yard touchdown run from Derrick Henry set the tone for that matchup. The Ravens took an immediate lead after a Bills opening drive three and out and never looked back.
Henry finished the game with 199 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. If that wasn’t enough damage, Jackson added 54 yards and a touchdown on just six carries. A recipe for disaster.
The big difference comes in the form of Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson. The Bills were without all three starters in their first matchup, and Bills fans know that this is the core of the defense. With all three healthy, the Bills will likely have a better game plan against the run and the players on the field to slow it down.
Bills’ pass rush vs Ravens’ offensive line
In the first matchup, the Bills generated a measly three quarterback hits and one sack. The inability to slow down the run had the line on their heels the entire night and completely guessing. While the passing numbers didn’t jump off the page, Jackson still threw two touchdown passes.
In the four of the five games that the Ravens lost this year, Jackson was sacked two or more times. Getting to him will be crucial to the Bills’ success on Sunday.
While the Ravens still have plenty of options like Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman and Justice Hill, the injury status of Zay Flowers is a huge turning point. If he is unable to go on Sunday, that is a huge boost for the Bills and takes the Ravens’ most dangerous receiving option away. This gives the Bills’ secondary a leg up in coverage, allowing the pass rush more time to get pressure on Jackson.
Bills' outside receivers vs Ravens' boundary corners
The strength of the Baltimore secondary lies in the middle of the field. Slot corner Marlon Humphrey is one of the best in the league and All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton is a swiss army knife. In all likelihood, Humphrey will cover Khalil Shakir and Hamilton will be responsible for Dalton Kincaid.
While those two have been Josh Allen’s favorite targets, there are still plenty of options ready to eat. The boundary corners Nate Wiggins and Brandon Stephens (and potentially Tre’Davious White) are a much better matchup for the Bills, so look for Allen to take advantage. This means guys like Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins and even Curtis Samuel in some spots might be in for a big day.
Latest Odds (from FanDuel):
- Moneyline: Buffalo Bills (-104), Baltimore Ravens (-112)
- Spread: Ravens -1.5 (-102), Bills +1.5 (-120)
- Total: 51.5
Prediction - Bills 30, Ravens 27
The game of the year does not disappoint. The now healthy Bills defense finds a way to limit the damage on the ground and the explosive plays. The offense continues its impressive play as Allen leads Buffalo back to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2021. Could it come down to a game winning Tyler Bass field goal?