The playoffs have arrived, and the Bills will be hosting a Wild Card game for the fifth straight season. They welcome a Denver Broncos team that is seemingly ahead of expectations with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, as they are in the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
While Bronco fans are mostly just excited to be in the playoffs despite all of the dead cap space and a first year QB, this team is no walk in the park. The Bills need to be on their game come Sunday to avoid a disastrous upset.
Looking at the game itself, there are a few key matchups that the Bills need to win in order to hold serve and maintain their undefeated record at home.
Bills Offensive Line vs Denver’s Defensive Front
It is no secret that Denver has the better defense in this game. It is their strength and the stats back it up. Just to take a quick look and make the point, here are some of the defensive categories in which the Broncos rank top 5 in the NFL:
- Points per game allowed (18.3)
- Yards per play allowed (4.9)
- Touchdowns allowed (31)
- Pass yards per play allowed (5.6)
- Rushing yards per game allowed (96.4)
- Rushing yards per play allowed (3.9)
- QB pressures (265) - Best in the NFL
- Pressure Rate (37.4%)
- Total Sacks (63) - Best in the NFL
- Sack % (8.9%) - Best in the NFL
- Rushing yards after contact allowed (2.64)
- Runs of 10+ yards allowed (42)
The Bills offensive line is going to have their hands full. In my playoff opponent preview article, I alluded to this matchup, but to make it very clear again, the offensive line is going to decide this game. The Denver defense has gotten pressure from all over, but the core four of concern are Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers. These four have combined for 39.5 sacks and can do it with and without the blitz.
Josh Allen is the least sacked quarterback in the league this season (14), which is a testament to both his offensive line and his ability to avoid pressure and get out of the pocket. Avoiding the game breaking and drive killing sacks will be paramount for the Bills in order to sustain drives and score points in this game.
Khalil Shakir vs Ja’Quan McMillian
Another intimidating part of the Broncos defense; Patrick Surtain II. The All-Pro cornerback is amongst the best in the NFL and has proven that he can shut down any wide receiver in the league. On the other side, Riley Moss has shown that he is a strong number two cornerback, making their secondary tough to attack on the outside. This can actually be a positive for the Bills.
Throughout the season, the Bills have operated without a true number one wide receiver. The “everybody eats” mentality translates extremely well to Sunday. Based on recent play and how the Denver corners have operated, we will likely see Surtain II and Moss covering Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper out wide. Not that these corners are unbeatable, but that still leaves Josh Allen with plenty of other favorable matchups. One of those is Khalil Shakir.
Shakir has been a steady target for Allen. He can get open in man coverage, find the soft spots in zone coverage, and can be a quick, timing throw option against the blitz.
The Broncos have the fourth highest blitz rate in the NFL (37%), which sets the stage for the Allen and Shakir connection. Shakir has been Josh’s favorite option when blitzed (28.3 percent target rate), and this is shaping up to be a key matchup for this Bills offense.
Sean McDermott vs Sean Payton
These two coaches are quite familiar with each other, but that’s not the reason we’re calling this out. Whenever the playoffs come around, the spotlight shines directly on Coach McDermott.
Every pregame article I write for a Bills playoff game will feature Sean McDermott and his decision making. It has been a talking point over the last few years and it will be under the microscope once again.
This is another year in which the Bills have high expectations, and McDermott needs to silence the critics. It starts Sunday against Super Bowl winning head coach Sean Payton. McDermott needs to make sure that if it comes down to a big decision, he needs to be one step ahead of the “mad-scientist” on the other sideline.
Prediction - Bills 28, Broncos 17
This will be a big time prove it game for the Bills offense, and they will answer the call. The dynamic nature of their attack will keep the Broncos on their heels throughout, and the defense will frustrate Bo Nix in key moments to keep Denver at a distance.