With the Bills being locked into the two seed and the starters playing limited to no time this week, we look ahead to the Wild Card weekend. Bills fans will be scoreboard watching as their first round opponent is up in the air and will come down to the final games.
The debate has begun amongst Bills fans; who would you rather host on Wild Card weekend? Let’s take a look at the potential matchups and why Bills fans should be excited and worried about each of them.
Denver Broncos (63% chance):
Clinch Scenario:
- Win/tie vs Kansas City OR
- Cincinnati loss/tie at Pittsburgh + Miami loss/tie at NY Jets
Why Bills Fans Should Want to Play Denver:
Denver comes into the weekend with the simplest path to the playoffs and the highest odds of grabbing the seven seed. Sean Payton and rookie QB Bo Nix will host Kansas City who will be playing all of their backups having clinched home field advantage for the playoffs. While the Broncos have been a bit of a surprise, they have shown some flaws over the course of the season that may bode well for the Bills should they match up.
The spotlight will be on Nix. He has had a strong rookie season and has the chance to get the Broncos into the playoffs for the first time since 2015. While he has shown a great ability to extend plays and beat teams with his arm and legs, your first postseason start brings another level of pressure. Sean McDermott and the Bills have had success against rookie quarterbacks, and a home playoff atmosphere at Highmark Stadium is a daunting task for any QB, let alone a rookie.
This type of pressure situation is not something that you can truly recreate in the regular season, but there are similar games and moments that can act as a measuring stick. Denver has a few of those games. Over the course of the season, Denver has played eight games (this includes Tampa Bay and Atlanta) against teams in the playoff field this season. In those games, the Broncos are 2-6 with a -4 turnover margin (they are +10 in their other eight games). When facing the top teams in the NFL, this Broncos team has struggled, and the Bills will look to continue that trend.
Why Bills Fans Should Not Want to Play Denver:
The strength of the Broncos is their defense. Coming into this game, the statistics speak for themselves. The Denver defense is top five in scoring, giving up only 19.4 points per game. They are also a top ten rushing defense, surrendering only 101 yards per game on the ground.
There is one thing that the Broncos defense does better than any other team in the league; get to the quarterback. This defense leads the league in sacks with 58 on the season, six more than the second best team (Baltimore). They also lead the league in pressures. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has his defense hungry, and mixes in the blitz about 30% of the time, 6th highest in the league. The Bills need to ensure that they keep Josh Allen protected and upright throughout this game if they want to sustain drives and score points. They also need to make sure they keep a close eye on All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II looming in the secondary.
Miami Dolphins (26% chance):
Clinch Scenario:
- Win at NY Jets + Denver loss vs Kansas City
Why Bills Fans Should Want to Play Miami:
If you had told Bills fans at the beginning of the season that they would be facing the Dolphins in the playoffs, I think there would be a lot more concern than there is now. The Dolphins season has been close to a full disaster, but somehow they still find themselves with a shot to make the playoffs in Week 18 despite a 1-4 record vs playoff teams this season.
Why would the Bills feel good about playing the Dolphins? First and foremost would be Allen’s success against Miami in his career. Allen is 12-2 all time against Miami with a 66.2% completion percentage, over 3,500 total yards and 45 total touchdowns. Allen has dominated Miami since coming to Buffalo.
There also is uncertainty at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa missed last week’s game against the Browns and has already been ruled out of this week’s game against the Jets. Tyler Huntley will make his second straight start after leading them to victory last week. While Huntley played well, Tua is still the most dangerous QB that Miami has, and his absence might be an advantage for the Bills.
Why Bills Fans Should Not Want to Play Miami:
Might is the key word. Albeit against the lowly Cleveland Browns, the offense looked like it had a bit more life last Sunday. Huntley threw for 225 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 52 yards and another touchdown. Tyreek Hill was the center of attention as he racked up 105 yards on nine catches, his second highest catch total and third highest yardage total of the season. While I still feel that Tua gives Miami the best chance to win, let’s not forget the playoff game vs Miami and Skylar Thompson in 2023.
Miami gives the Bills tough games for the most part, and as we know in sports, it’s tough to beat a team three times in a season. Miami’s defense has been a strong point for them this year, as they are top ten in points per game, passing yards per game, and rush yards per game. If they are able to slow down the Bills offense and turn this game into a rock fight, it might just be another nail biter in Orchard Park.
Cincinnati Bengals (11% chance):
Clinch Scenario:
- Win at Pittsburgh + Denver loss vs Kansas City + Miami loss/tie at N.Y. Jets
Why Bills Fans Should Want to Play Cincinnati:
It is crazy to think that this team even has a chance to make the playoffs. Media and fans around the league kept giving the Bengals a chance in their minds, but the results on the field kept telling a different story. The reason they haven’t had an easier path to the playoffs is because of their defense.
Over the course of the season, the Bengals have given up 30+ points six times (they are 0-6 in those games). The defense ranks top ten in most points per game, total yards per game and pass yards per game. This is the biggest weak spot for any team in contention for the seven seed, and is something that the Bills will need to exploit should they play the Bengals. Think of the Rams and Lions games; that is the type of offense needed.
Why Bills Fans Should Not Want to Play Cincinnati:
The danger of playing the Bengals? Expect a shootout, and like we saw in the Rams and Lions games, those can go either way. Fans (like myself) can remember the feeling when Joe Burrow and the Bengals came to Orchard Park in 2023 and dominated the Bills in a 27-10 divisional round win. This is not a team you want to see in the postseason.
Burrow and the offense have kept this team’s hopes alive, as he is having an MVP caliber season despite the 8-8 record. Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards and touchdown passes, and is top five in completion percentage. He continues to step up and make incredible plays when his team needs him the most, and he has refused to let this season die. Batman (he was given this nickname because of his Batmobile purchase) has quite a few incredible sidekicks too.
Other than Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase is the best non-QB player on offense this season. He currently leads the NFL in receptions, yards and touchdowns. He is on track to become just the fifth wide receiver all time to win the Triple Crown (Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe, Steve Smith Sr. and Cooper Kupp).
His partner in crime, Tee Higgins, is coming into form these last few weeks, accounting for five touchdowns in the last three games. Coming off an 11 catch, 131 yard and three touchdown game, Bills fans need to be very worried about the Burrow and Higgins connection as well.
The Bengals kick off the weekend on Saturday, while the Broncos and Dolphins both play in the late afternoon slot on Sunday. Bills fans will get one last look at their potential opponents and will have the chance to narrow their focus and begin to worry as every Bills fan does come playoff time.