Can Josh Allen improve his interception total for the Bills in 2024?

In 2023, Josh Allen threw 18 interceptions, placing him second in the league behind only Sam Howell, who racked up 21. A topic on many major networks, some have said this is just the price you pay when you have a gunslinger like Allen, while others have concluded that the interceptions will be the downfall of the Buffalo Bills as long as number 17 suits up in the Red and Blue.

Both of these statements rest on the belief that there will be no improvement in the interception numbers, given that this was Josh Allen’s sixth NFL season. When breaking down the receivers targeted when intercepted, the picture looks a little different:

The first thing to notice is that four of the players who represent 13 of the 18 interception targets are no longer on the team. Now, that doesn’t mean we can just wipe 13 interceptions off the board; these players will be or have been replaced.

Davis was third in targets but first in targets that turned into interceptions. If these targets were just contested balls that Davis didn’t come down with, it could be considered bad luck, something that would improve based on the law of averages.

Unfortunately, many, if not most, of the plays Davis was involved in were not contested balls, but balls Davis failed to contest. In Week 18 alone, he trips in the endzone for one interception and runs away from the ball after it's thrown for another, also in the endzone.

In Weeks 3, 9, and 11, Davis just watches, making no attempt to contest the ball. We shouldn’t expect Davis to catch any or all of those passes, but in those situations he should have, at the very least, contested, ensuring that either he caught the ball or no one did. That leaves two Davis interception targets. In Week 1, Josh Allen doesn’t see the DB jump the route, and in Week 10, Allen puts the ball in a rocket launcher, throwing it a little high, so the ball slips through Davis's hands.

With Curtis Samuel, the heir apparent to the WR2 spot, Bills fans should consider this an upgrade. Having experience with QBs similar in style to Josh Allen, like Cam Newton and Sam Howell, makes him a good fit. On top of that, Samuel only had 4 targets turned interceptions in 2023, all of which were worse throws than the ones seen by Gabe Davis.

The Diggs targets are slightly more complicated to analyze. With four interception targets, there are four different reasons they were intercepted. His first of the year in Week 1, Josh throws into double coverage, and Diggs lets up, allowing the DB to get in front of him.

In Week 5, Diggs gets outmuscled on a 3rd and 15 arm punt 60 yards down the field. In Week 12, while in double coverage, Diggs tries to catch a curl route pass with his body, and the defensive back is able to cut off the throw.

And in Week 12, the play breaks down, and a ball is underthrown down the field, leaving Diggs with nothing he could do. The problem I see here is that the Bills were treating Diggs like a big-body receiver in 3 of the 4 of these situations.

With Diggs gone, the Bills are likely to draft a receiver, most likely in the first round. Many experts are mocking WR Brian Thomas Jr. to the Bills at 28. This prospect is a 6’3” 209lbs downfield target compared to Diggs’s 6’0” 190.

The Bills are about to go into their first full season under Joe Brady, and the offense is being retooled during the offseason. Josh Allen will have new and exciting targets to pair with up-and-comers turned veterans from last year. The receiving corps will arguably be better suited for the offense and an all-around upgrade. When projecting for the 2024 season we should probably expect at least 10 interceptions from Josh Allen and no more than 15.

2024 Projection for Josh Allen Interceptions: 10-15