I know the Super Bowl hasn't kicked off yet and the league technically isn't in offseason mode just yet. But I think I speak for most of Bills Mafia when I say we don't really care about the Super Bowl and we're ready to move on from the 2023 NFL season. I know I am and first up in the offseason schedule is free agency, followed by the NFL Draft. NFL Free Agency is set to begin March 13, which is only a little more than a month away. It'll be here before you know it. The NFL Draft is scheduled to begin on April 25th, and we are already starting to see multiple mock drafts. Even AI is getting in on the mock draft fun.
Over the next 21 days, I will profile each of the Buffalo Bills' pending free agents, assuming none of them sign new deals over the next three weeks. Buffalo is projected to be around $50 million over the cap once the new cap is established. Brandon Beane will have to work some of his salary cap magic but I have no doubt he'll do that, as he does every year. Will the Bills have the money to re-sign Davis to the type of deal that Davis would be happy with while still considering other potential free agent signings?
Gabe Davis finished the regular season with 45 receptions on 78 targets, for 746 yards and seven touchdowns. This was his third season of four with seven touchdown receptions and the only season he didn't have seven, he still managed six touchdown catches. The problem is his stats come in bunches. He recorded six or more receptions only four times and those four games accounted for 60 percent of his season total. He also had four games over 90+ receiving yards, accounting for 57 percent. In addition, four of his seven touchdowns came in weeks two through five. Add to that, he had six games this past season with one or zero catches.
On a positive note, per Pro Football Focus, he was credited with only four drops in 2023, which was the lowest drop rate of his career. His 16.6 yards per reception was sixth best in the NFL, better than Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase, among many others. There is no question about Davis' big-play ability, it's just a question of when he's going to show up.
Spotrac.com has Gabe Davis' market value projected at $13.6 million average annual salary. First, Spotrac's projected annual is typically a bit higher than what free agents typically end up signing. Secondly, this is an average, so it's possible the Bills could resign Davis to a deal that is backloaded but saves the team some money on the front end. For me, I would prefer a lower annual salary and if a team is ready to offer him that kind of money, let them do it. I would not have an issue having Davis back on the team, I think he was sorely missed against the Chiefs in the playoffs but for the money, I think I would rather Buffalo spend it at another position and restock the receiver room through the draft.