The NFL world can’t stop talking about the Miami Dolphins, but has that let the Buffalo Bills slip under the radar in the betting market?
I believe it has.
Buffalo is +165 to win the AFC East following Week 3, as the Dolphins stole the show, putting up 70 points in a 50-point win over the Denver Broncos.
With the win, the Dolphins (who are just one game up on the Bills) are now odds on favorites to win the AFC East.
Are we serious?
Sure, the Dolphins have looked great to start this season, but have they really done enough to warrant being odds on favorites in the division? They’ve beaten three teams that have a combined two wins on the season, and the win over Denver – while dominant – was expected.
The Bills, on the other hand, have fallen out of favor in the market after losing on the road against the New York Jets in Week 1. Yet, they’ve outscored their opponents 75-13 in the last two weeks of action.
Are oddsmakers forgetting that Buffalo has won the AFC East in three straight seasons?
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Latest odds to win the AFC East in 2023
Bills could be favored to win AFC East after Week 4
I am a huge fan of betting on the Bills at +165 to win the division before they take on Miami in Week 4 at home.
The Bills come into this game as favorites at home, meaning that oddsmakers expect both of these teams to be 3-1 after Week 4. Yet, the Dolphins are heavily favored in the division? That doesn’t make much sense.
If Buffalo wins this game, there's no doubt that these odds will shift, potentially even moving the Bills to the favorite. So, to get them as huge underdogs feels like a steal if you're confident in them at home in Week 4.
If Buffalo wins this game, it’ll hold the tiebreaker – for the time being – over Miami. Let’s not forget, since 2019, Buffalo is 7-1 against the Dolphins in the regular season and 1-0 in the postseason. Miami’s only win came in the 2022 campaign.
The Dolphins have had an impressive start to the season, but bettors should be careful about going all-in on a team that struggled against playoff teams last season, going just 2-5. They had a massive win streak in the middle of the 2022 season where they beat five teams that failed to make the postseason.
It’s possible that Miami’s early-season stretch in 2023 is very similar to that.
I’m going to take the Bills at plus money at any chance I get given their success over the past few seasons.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.