There’s no need to look for a panic button in Buffalo, as the Bills dominated the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 for their first win of the 2023 season.
Yes, Buffalo’s Week 1 loss to the Aaron Rodgers-less New York Jets wasn’t great, but at the end of the day it was a road division game. Buffalo should be just fine when it comes to competing for a playoff spot this season.
On the bright side for bettors and Bills fans, the team’s loss in Week 1 has created a ton of value in Buffalo’s odds to win the AFC East. With the Miami Dolphins starting 2-0, the market has been in love with Tua Tagovailoa in company, setting Miami as a +105 favorite to win the division.
Following Sunday’s action, the Bills slot in at +140, a noticeable mark behind the Dolphins. Personally, I think it’s a little disrespectful to have Buffalo this far back just games into the season, and that could make wagering on the Bills a great bet.
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Bills odds to win the AFC East
Sure, the Dolphins are 2-0, but the betting market seems to be taking a stand on the early returns.
Tagovailoa is the favorite to win the league MVP award despite throwing two picks in his first two games and only throwing one touchdown last week.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have played one possession games in each of their first two wins – albeit both games were on the road.
I don’t think Miami’s play so far this season renders it to be this close to an outright favorite in the AFC East, especially since these two teams have yet to play.
Since 2019, Buffalo is 7-1 against the Dolphins in the regular season and 1-0 in the postseason. Miami’s only win came in the 2022 campaign.
There is also the concern with Tagovailoa and his health, as he’s been injured in each of the last two seasons. If he doesn’t play all 17 games, will Miami still be as effective? Probably not.
Buffalo entered the season as the favorite in the division, yet unlike other teams who lost Week 1 (Kansas City for example) the team has seen a major shift in its division odds.
I’ll take the disrespect the Bills are getting and turn it into a bet on them being undervalued.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.