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Best NFL Prop Bets for Dolphins vs. Bills in NFL Week 4

Fireworks are expected in Buffalo, what's the best way to target this game from a player prop perspective?

By Reed Wallach

Sep 24, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) runs with the
Sep 24, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) runs with the / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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All eyes will be on Western New York on Sunday when the Dolphins visit the Bills in an AFC East clash.

The Dolphins are fresh off a 70-point drubbing against the Broncos but will face a stiff test in Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the Bills vaunted offense. Which players are in a position to succeed and how should we bet it?

I've got you covered:

Check out Iain MacMillian's bets for EVERY NFL game in his weekly column, the "Road to 272!"

Best Prop Bets for Dolphins vs. Bills

  • Stefon Diggs OVER 6.5 Receptions
  • Josh Allen OVER 11.5 Rushing Yards
  • Raheem Mostert OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards

Stefon Diggs OVER 6.5 Receptions

Diggs has cleared this number in every game this season but only in one of two against the Dolphins in 2022. However, he got at least nine targets in both games.

While Miami brought in Vic Fangio to head up the defense, I still believe that Allen will look at his favorite target often in this one. The team is passing it on nearly two-thirds of its plays and this should be a shootout, meaning more possessions and opportunities for Diggs to find soft spots in the Dolphins zone coverage.

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Josh Allen 35.5 Rushing Yards

Allen cleared this line in two of three games this season, but with expected fireworks in this one and the need to put points on the board, I expect the ball to stay in No. 17's hands often in this one.

While Allen has been a bit more subdued in his rush rate this season, he hasn't run it more than six times this season, I believe it's for times like this. Allen is a devastating rusher, but I believe with more maturity comes improved decision-making, opting to take fewer hits, but not in a game that will help define the AFC pecking order come playoff time.

I'm trusting Allen as a rusher on Sunday.

Raheem Mostert OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards

A lot was made this week about De'Von Achane's usage this week after he had four touchdowns in the Dolphins beat down of the Broncos. However, Mostert also had four touchdowns and out-snapped Achane, playing 51% of snaps against Achane's 41%.

Mostert is averaging nearly 14 carries per game and is averaging 68 yards. The Bills defense has been able to lean on some lackluster offenses this season like the Raiders and Commanders, getting up early and forcing the team into passing situations, but that won't be the case against the Dolphins.

Buffalo's defense struggled to slow down Breece Hall in Week 1 and I believe this run defense is vulnerable as it awaits Von Miller's return to shore up the linebacker group. I think Mostert gets to this below-average mark with ease.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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