The Buffalo Bills have as good a shot as 13 other teams at reaching Super Bowl LX, at least mathematically speaking. Of course, everyone has an opinion on just how viable the Bills are as Super Bowl contenders.
Still, Bills Mafia is putting its full confidence in Josh Allen to will the team to the promised land in Santa Clara, California. If anyone can drag a team to the Super Bowl without consistent wide receiver and defensive play, it’s him.
With the postseason soon to begin, Super Bowl matchup predictions are in full swing, and one ESPN analyst believes in Josh Allen almost as much as Bills fans do.
ESPN analyst bets on Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills surviving the AFC playoff gauntlet
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell offered his prediction of the entire NFL postseason recently, projecting the Bills to run the AFC’s gauntlet to reach Super Bowl LX. He projected the Bills to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-24, the 1-seed Denver Broncos 27-17, and the New England Patriots 31-27 in the AFC Championship. In Super Bowl LX, Barnwell predicts the matchup to be the Bills vs. the Los Angeles Rams.
“This would be fun, huh? Matthew Stafford vs. Josh Allen. Sean McVay vs. Sean McDermott. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. ... Khalil Shakir and Brandin Cooks. I don't think many people would argue that the Bills have the better roster here, but they have Allen, and sometimes that's enough,” Barnwell wrote about the matchup.
In the end, Barnwell sees the Rams picking up their second Lombardi Trophy with Matthew Stafford, beating the Bills 38-34, thanks in large part to their steady run game that would surely give McDermott’s defense fits.
“... This would be a nightmare of a matchup for the Bills' biggest weakness, pitting the worst run defense in the postseason against one of the most efficient and consistent rushing attacks of the past decade,” Barnwell wrote. “The Bills were 31st in EPA per play allowed when facing designed runs this season. The Rams' rushing attack was fourth in EPA per play on designated rushes, improving to second over the second half of the season.”
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Surely, though, if the Bills’ run defense plays so poorly through the postseason, the Bills aren’t likely to reach the Super Bowl anyway. The AFC might not have the strongest rushing teams outside of Buffalo itself, but teams like the Jaguars, Steelers, and Patriots run the ball well enough, at times, to be a threat against Buffalo’s inconsistencies.
To Barnwell’s point in the Super Bowl matchup, if the Bills can keep things close despite their inconsistencies against the run, they still have to contend through the air to keep up with explosive downfield offense. The Bills don’t have anyone to help out Allen as Nakua and Adams do for Stafford, nor Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. for Trevor Lawrence, Steffon Diggs for Drake Maye, or even DK Metcalf for Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh.
Regardless, the Bills showed through the back-half of the season that when things get tight, Allen can find a way to win even with his lacking receivers. It’s that aspect that makes Barnwell’s prediction palatable in the first place. In the same respect, it’s why the Bills have a shot of beating any NFC team they might meet in the Super Bowl, too.
First things first, though, the Bills have to prove ESPN’s Bill right through the playoffs, starting this Sunday in Jacksonville.