It all comes down to this. Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. A familiar place that hasn’t been kind to the Buffalo Bills in recent years in January. The two best teams in the AFC this season square off one more time. Mahomes vs Allen in the playoffs Part IV. This is once again the litmus test for the Bills in the playoffs. This is the second time a trip to the Super Bowl has been on the line in this playoff rivalry but this time it’s different.
While it’s an oddity in football to spin this game as “Mahomes vs Allen”, neither player will see the field at the same time to literally go head-to-head. Of course, it’s metaphorical and a trope designed to push a narrative, and what a narrative it is! But this game is going to come down to each quarterback’s ability to maneuver third downs and handle the blitz, but, more on that in a moment.
On the Josh Allen side of things, he really is the most scrutinized quarterback for his shortcomings in recent memory. His inability to “win the big one” is sort of the monkey on his back. Peyton Manning had it until he beat Tom Brady then ultimately won a Super Bowl, and it happened to Steve Young before him. Every professional athlete is judged by their ability to win. Josh Allen wins games, but he hasn’t won his “defining” game.
This season, Josh Allen has had the most complimentary offensive gameplan he’s really ever had. That has led to Allen playing very efficient. Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in these playoffs, and over the course of this season Allen has played the most historically clean football that any player has had since the AFL-NFL merger.
Josh Allen is playing the cleanest football of any QB in NFL HISTORY
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 20, 2025
This season he has the lowest pct of plays with a sack, fumble or INT (4.2%) since the merger
(incl. playoffs, min. 500 plays) pic.twitter.com/xtvWMTzGKO
The Patrick Mahomes side of this is really simple and short winded. He’s 3-0 against Josh Allen in the playoffs. That’s really all I have to say. Mahomes is a three-time Super Bowl champion, looking to lead his team to football’s first ever three-peat.
Mahomes’ legacy is seemingly rewritten every season, while the likes of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen have to take on criticisms hurled at them as Mahomes keeps hoisting Lombardi trophies. But the solution is to beat Mahomes in the playoffs. Joe Burrow did once and didn’t capitalize and he lost his rematch.
Back to the analytics of it all, the Bills allowed the Ravens to convert 70% of third downs, something Patrick Mahomes can do very well. The Bills blitzed Lamar Jackson on 48.4% of his drop backs, their 5th-highest blitz rate in a game under Sean McDermott and highest in a game since Week 15, 2021, according to Next Gen Stats.
Getting points will be paramount for the Bills but a 10-point lead at the half is seemingly all Josh Allen needs. Allen is 34-5 in his career when holding a 10+ point lead at halftime per Pro Football Network.
Patrick Mahomes said on Wednesday that he does not believe the Chiefs get favorable calls from the officials.
— Mike Catalana (@MikeCatalana) January 23, 2025
Penalty numbers from last 11 Chiefs playoff games
Kansas City 36-319 yards
Opponents 66-541 yards
Only game where KC did not have fewer… pic.twitter.com/fWl49BvgnK
The great underlying key to the game is penalties. We could dive into conspiracies and “scripts” but fact of the matter is, when you don’t commit penalties and hurt your chances to score points you generally win games. Kansas City is a championship team for a reason, when it matters most, they don’t commit costly penalties. If the Bills play clean football, they will have a great chance to win this game. But we return to the quarterbacks. Narrative and legacy is what this game is about.
The last three teams looking for a Super Bowl three-peat fell short: 1976 Steelers, 1990 49ers, and 1994 Cowboys. Patrick Mahomes is looking to avoid that history thus cementing his legacy as one of the greatest to ever play.
On the flip side of the same coin and probably the most humorous twist of fate, Josh Allen is probably one of the most cheered for spoilers in history. Josh Allen had a monumental task facing the Ravens, he won. Now he gets his chance to write his legacy. He gets his chance to prevent something that has never been done.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have it all in front of them this week. A familiar foe, your ultimate foil, your main nemesis stands in your way and your chance for greatness. Josh Allen cannot fall short this time. Buffalo cannot shrink in the moment because these moments don’t come along that often. Letting these moments slip through your fingers means you become a footnote to history instead of making it.