The Buffalo Bills, who entered Sunday with their playoff spot unsecured and their AFC East title hopes lost by the roadside, came out on top after a thrilling Week 15. Their remarkable comeback win over the New England Patriots is just one of several signature moments from the 2025 season. Now they keep their slim hopes for the AFC East, and the #1 seed, alive and well.
AFC Playoff Race
West | East | South | North |
|---|---|---|---|
12-2 Broncos (1) | 11-3 Patriots (2) | 10-4 Jaguars (3) | 8-6 Steelers (4) |
10-4 Chargers (5) | 10-4 Bills (6) | 9-5 Texans (7) | 7-7 Ravens |
6-8 Chiefs | 6-8 Dolphins | 8-6 Colts | 4-10 Bengals |
2-12 Raiders | 3-11 Jets | 2-12 Titans | 3-11 Browns |
It was indeed a great Sunday for the Buffalo Bills, but not quite perfect. In an ideal world, the Chargers, Jaguars, Broncos, and Texans would have suffered losses as well, but we take what we can get. Only two teams on the outs have a shot at working their way back into the playoffs: The Colts and Ravens. Of the two, only one can play a role in removing the Bills. Buffalo is all but guaranteed to secure playoff spot, but their sights are higher.
The NFL has tiebreaking procedures for seeding Wild Card teams in the playoffs, which will undoubtedly play a role this January. Here they are:
1) Head-to-head
2) Conference record
3) Common games record (if 4+ common games)
4) Strength of victory (SoV)
5) Strength of schedule (SoS)
Tiebreakers 6 and beyond are highly unlikely to apply, but we'll cover those in future weeks if needed. Until it's no longer available, the #1 seed must be the goal for Buffalo, so keep that in mind as these rooting interests make things simple for you.
Thursday Night Football
L.A. Rams @ Seattle Seahawks - 8:15pm
It's NFC vs. NFC, so we skip straight to SoV and SoS tiebreakers. The Rams (11-3) have beaten every AFC competitor they've faced this season, handing out losses to the Jaguars, Colts, Ravens, and Texans. The Seahawks (11-3) did the same, beating the Jaguars, Colts, Steelers, and Texans. The only difference is a Seattle win benefits Pittsburgh and a Rams win benefits Baltimore. We're of the opinion that we'd rather play the Ravens again over Pittsburgh, and only one of them likely makes the playoffs.
Interest: Seahawks win
Saturday Showdowns
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders - 5:00pm
The Eagles (9-5) visit the Commanders (4-10) for another NFC-NFC showdown. The Eagles lost to the Broncos and Chargers, with an upcoming game against Buffalo in Week 17. Washington beat the Chargers but lost to Denver. Denver cancels out, but the Chargers take a minor hit with a win from Washington. A backup QB at the helm, against a playoff team with little to worry about: That's who Buffalo has to put their trust in. If Dallas loses this week, the Eagles will be nearly locked into the #3 seed, and have nothing to play for. That would make them an easier opponent for Week 17.
Interest: Commanders win
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears - 8:20pm
These two faced off in Week 14, and we ruled a Packers (9-4-1) win was best for the Bills. Since then, their loss to the Ravens has made them even in all regards. The Bears (10-4) position is unchanged. For the first time in the history of this series, it truly makes no difference. If anything, a draw is most desirable.
Interest: Draw
Early Sunday Window
L.A. Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys - 1:00pm
A clear-cut answer here. The Chargers (10-4) are the lone wildcard team above the Bills at this time. A loss to the Cowboys (6-7-1) would help solidify a favourable matchup in round one if the Bills don't fall into the AFC East lead by Week 18. Root for the Cowboys.
Interest: Cowboys win
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants - 1:00pm
The Giants (2-12) are hosting the Vikings (6-8), both of whom are out of contention. NFC vs. NFC- Tiebreaker time. The Giants beat the Chargers but lost to the Broncos and Patriots. Minnesota lost to the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens. If you want to hurt the Chargers, but help Denver and New England, pick NYG. If you want to avoid helping them but assist Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and LAC, choose Minnesota. It's an ugly game with little impact, so we aim to hurt the teams highest above us. However slim, the #1 seed is still a possibility.
Interest: Vikings win
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers - 1:00pm
If the Buccaneers (7-7) intend to actually make the playoffs, they'll need to maintain their tiebreaker lead over the Panthers (7-7) for the NFC South crown. In arguably the most compelling matchup of the week, this could be the one that decides who advances and who drops into the dregs of the league.
That being said, it doesn't do much for the Bills. The Bucs beat the Texans, then lost to the Bills and Patriots. Carolina lost to Jacksonville, New England, and Buffalo. Seeing as Houston has the head-to-head tiebreaker against Buffalo, SoV and SoS are meaningless there, but could come into play against the Jaguars. For that reason, root for Tampa Bay.
Interest: Buccaneers win
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints - 1:00pm
The Jets (3-11) are fighting for the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft, and the Saints (4-10) are on the edge of that competition too. Regardless of who wins this, the top of the draft order will be shifted heavily. But, back to the Bills we go.
The Jets have lost to the Steelers, Bills, Broncos, Patriots, Ravens, and Jaguars. The Saints have lost to Buffalo and New England only. A Saints win currently helps the Bills.
Interest: Saints win
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns - 1:00pm
As if fans needed to be told- Rooting for the Browns (3-11) over the Bills (10-4) would be absurd and all but guarantee the AFC East goes through New England. Common games record has become a notable tiebreaker, so beating the Browns is critical to Buffalo's advancement.
Interest: Bills win
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans - 1:00pm
With the Chiefs (6-8) shocking the NFL by missing the playoffs- with three weeks remaining on the season, no less- they join the Titans (2-12) in the hunt for draft picks. Both teams are no longer obstacles, so we cut to the tiebreaker impact. The Chiefs lost to the Chargers twice, the Bills, Broncos, and Texans. It's a wonder they made it this far, in hindsight. The Titans lost to the Colts twice, the Texans twice, the Broncos, Chargers, and Patriots- nearly every AFC competitor but the Bills. A Chiefs win doesn't help much, but at least it helps Buffalo at all.
Interest: Chiefs win
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins - 1:00pm
A battle of two franchises, both eliminated from AFC playoff contention this weekend. This is to be treated as an NFC vs. NFC battle would be; we cut to the SoV and SoS tiebreaker impact. The Dolphins (6-8) lost to the Colts, Patriots, Bills, Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers, with a win over Buffalo and another game against the Patriots upcoming. The Bengals (4-10) beat the Jaguars, Steelers, and Ravens, but also lost to the Broncos, Patriots, Bills, and Ravens. The cleanest option, most helpful to the Bills, is a Bengals win.
Interest: Bengals win
Late Sunday Window
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos - 4:05pm
The first true dilemma in the Week 16 schedule, Buffalo would rather no team win this one. Still, a draw may not be a win, but neither is it a loss. The Broncos (12-2) need to lose at least two games for the #1 seed to remain in play, and the Jaguars (10-4) are well-equipped to do it. As long as the #1 seed is still in play for the Bills, it has to be the goal.
Interest: Jaguars win
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals - 4:05pm
NFC vs. NFC, so we cut to SoV and SoS tiebreakers. The Cardinals (3-11) have lost to the Colts, Texans, and Jaguars. The Falcons (5-9) have lost to the Colts and Patriots, but beaten the Bills. The Colts are moot, having beaten both sides. SoV is highly unlikely to apply between the Bills and Patriots, considering the state of their current tiebreakers; Rooting for the Falcons allows some minor harm to the Jaguars and Texans.
Interest: Falcons win
Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans - 4:25pm
AFC vs. AFC is good for the Bills' playoff seeding, but they need an underdog win here. If the Raiders (2-12) pull off an upset over the Texans (9-5), the Bills are more secure in the 6th seed or better. Clear-cut, we move right along.
Interest: Raiders win
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions - 4:25pm
This is a simple AFC vs. NFC choice, with a competing AFC playoff team. Though the Steelers (8-6) have the current lead in the AFC North, the Lions (8-6) are in need of a win to stay actively involved as the 8th seed in the NFC. Though we appreciate Pittsburgh ending the Dolphins' season on Monday Night Football, they've come far enough. To keep the Bills' path clear, down Pittsburgh must go.
Interest: Lions win
Sunday Night Football
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens - 8:20pm
Any Patriots (11-3) loss helps the Bills in their quest for the AFC East crown. New England losing to a divisional opponent might be needed in case of a tie, but outright record is still on the table as a method of advancement. The Ravens (7-7) are a team Buffalo would rather not see again, but they should certainly be who fans root for in Week 16.
Interest: Ravens win
Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts - 8:15pm
We end with an easy decision. The Colts (8-6) are, of course, the lone team in the hunt that could remove Buffalo from a playoff spot. A loss by them can safeguard the Bills against that unlikely upset. The 49ers (10-4) are a good team to take care of business and clarify the AFC playoff picture.