Following another electric Buffalo Bills comeback, this time over the AFC East-leading New England Patriots, the playoff picture has shifted dramatically. Josh Allen powering the Bills to victory certainly helps, but the division title isn't Buffalo's yet.
They still need to win a few more, and get some help. Though the AFC East title race is in play, so is missing the playoffs entirely. Lets clear things up after some wild Week 15 action.
AFC East title race
The Patriots are 11-3, one game ahead of the 10-4 Bills. Assuming both these teams can win the remainder of their games, the Bills need New England to drop one to enter a tiebreaking scenario. Obviously, a better record outright would win the division. These are the order of tiebreakers within a division fight.
1) Head-to-head record
2) Divisional game win percentage
3) Common games win percentage
4) Conference games win percentage
5) Strength of victory (SoV)
6) Strength of schedule (SoS)
7) Conference points scored and allowed
8) All games points scored and allowed
9) Net points in common games
10) Net points in all games
11) Net touchdowns in all games
12) Coin toss
Divisional win percentage
The Bills are Patriots are even on head-to-head record, so we move to the second tiebreaker: Divisional game win percentage. The Patriots are 3-1, and the Bills are 3-2, with two divisional games left for New England and one for Buffalo. If Buffalo intends to win the AFC East, the Patriots have to lose a minimum of one divisional game. The Pats play the Ravens, then Jets, then Dolphins. A loss in Week 17 or 18 pushes these two to a common games tiebreaker.
Common games
In common games, the Bills and Patriots are both 6-1, with a game left each. The Bills remaining games are the Browns, Eagles, and Jets. The common game for New England is Baltimore, and for Buffalo it's Cleveland. To win this tiebreaker, Buffalo would have to beat the Browns, and the Pats lose to the Ravens. Both games are played in Week 16, so this will be answered by next week. If things are still even after this tiebreaker, we move to conference win percentage.
Conference win percentage
Entering Week 16 the Bills are 7-3 in the conference, and the Patriots are 6-3. Buffalo has two games remaining, and New England has three. In order to win this tiebreaker, Buffalo needs to beat the Browns and Jets and have New England drop any one of their final three games.
In order to get to this tiebreaker, the Pats would have to have lost one divisional game and the Bills lost none, giving Buffalo the edge. If this tiebreaker is reached, it becomes a Buffalo AFC East title win by default.
Summary
In order for the Buffalo Bills to become AFC East champions, these are the scenarios:
1) Beat the Patriots record outright
2) Tie record, Pats lose both remaining AFC East matchups
3) Tie record, Pats lose 1 AFC East matchup, lose to Baltimore, Buffalo beats Cleveland.
4) Tie record, Pats lose 1 AFC East matchup, Buffalo wins remaining AFC matchups.