After one of the most electric weekends of NFL football we've seen all season, the Buffalo Bills are looking secure in their playoff spot. According to NFL.com, they have a 96% probability of making the playoffs. That only drops to 92% with a loss this weekend, or climbs to 99% with a win. Their destiny isn't entirely in their hands, however. There's a field of teams vying for position, of whom the Bills are but one.
AFC Playoff Race
West | East | South | North |
|---|---|---|---|
11-2 Broncos (1) | 11-2 Patriots (2) | 9-4 Jaguars (3) | 7-6 Steelers (4) |
9-4 Chargers (5) | 9-4 Bills (6) | 8-5 Texans (7) | 6-7 Ravens |
6-7 Chiefs | 6-7 Dolphins | 8-5 Colts | 4-9 Bengals |
2-11 Raiders | 3-10 Jets | 2-11 Titans | 3-10 Browns |
The Buffalo Bills are currently the 6th seed, only two games shy of the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. Unfortunately, it's a five-team jumble at 9-4 and 8-5; someone will have to miss out as either the 7-6 Steelers or 6-7 Ravens take the AFC North title. The Texans' win over Kansas City on Sunday night crowded the race. Any slip could mean elimination. As comfortable as the Buffalo looks, they could be gone in a moment.
The NFL has tiebreaking procedures for seeding Wild Card teams in the playoffs, which will undoubtedly play a role this January. Here they are:
1) Head-to-head
2) Conference record
3) Common games record (if 4+ common games)
4) Strength of victory (SoV)
5) Strength of schedule (SoS)
As of yet, tiebreakers 6 and beyond are unlikely to apply. If needed, we'll cover those down the road. Until it's no longer available, the #1 seed must be the goal for Buffalo. With that in mind, these rooting interests clear up who Bills fans should be rooting for in every game in Week 15.
Thursday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 8:15pm
The Buccaneers (7-6) have beaten the Texans and lost to the Patriots and Bills. The Falcons (4-9) have beaten the Bills and lost to the Patriots and Colts. Only the Bucs winning helps Buffalo without also helping multiple other AFC playoff contenders.
Interest: Buccaneers win
Early Sunday Window
Baltimore Ravens @ Cininnati Bengals - 1:00pm
The Bengals (4-9) are coming off a tough loss to the Bills in one of the best games of the year. They are a great team that suffered massively by losing Joe Burrow for a chunk of the season. The Ravens (6-7) had similar woes, but their fall to Pittsburgh, sending them from the 4th seed to the 10th, was lost by a healthy team.
Buffalo beat both these teams head-to-head, and both are at the bottom of the playoff race. Their division title is still a close race, and Buffalo would rather not see the Ravens again if they can help it. The Bengals also have fewer losses to AFC competitors than Baltimore, so for SoV reasons, root for Cincy.
Interest: Bengals win
Las Vegas Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles - 1:00pm
Buffalo doesn't play the Raiders (2-11) this season, but many AFC competitors did or do. The Eagles (ADJUST) can play their role as the NFC team and do the Bills a favour by beating the Raiders to keep SoV and SoS low in case of a tiebreaker.
Interest: Eagles win
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans - 1:00pm
One of the clear-cut options of Week 15, the Houston Texans (8-5) are one game away from overtaking the Bills in the AFC Wild Card race. They own the critical head-to-head tiebreaker, and their victory over the Chiefs, whilst damning for Kansas City, made things difficult for Buffalo. The Arizona Cardinals (3-10), however, are in the NFC. Easy decision.
Interest: Cardinals win
L.A. Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs - 1:00pm
This inter-AFC West matchup is good for the Bills. The Chargers (9-5) are coming off their overtime win against the Eagles on Monday. The Chiefs (6-7) are reeling after another loss to an AFC playoff competitor all but ended their postseason aspirations. Though Kansas City may still be a force to be reckoned with, only one of these teams races alongside Buffalo for a playoff spot. Rooting for those poor, downtrodden Chiefs is Buffalo's only option if they intend to keep climbing the playoff ladder.
Interest: Chiefs win
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots - 1:00pm
Every week, we point out games that have major impacts on the AFC playoff race. Rooting for Buffalo always helps. In Week 15, the Bills (9-4) have their most important game of the season. The Patriots (11-2) are coming off their bye and would cement their place atop the AFC East with a win over Buffalo. If the Bills can pull out a win in Foxborough, they move just one game behind the division lead. That lead is the single most important goal Buffalo can aim for. No overstatements, this game could decide the season.
Interest: Bills win
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars - 1:00pm
As much fun as watching the Jets (3-10) lose can be, they are already eliminated from contention. The Jaguars (9-4), however, are a legitimate threat in the AFC playoffs. Following their Week 14 win over the Colts, Jacksonville owns the driver's seat as the AFC's 3rd-best team. We reiterate- As long as the #1 seed is in play, that must be the goal. A Jacksonville loss currently helps Buffalo close in on that goal. It also worsens the New York Jets' draft picks.
Interest: Jets win
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants - 1:00pm
NFC vs. NFC, so we go straight to SoV and SoS tiebreakers. Remember that as we have a few more NFC bowls coming up.
The Commanders (3-10) lost to the Chiefs and Broncos but beat the Chargers. The Giants (2-11) also lost to the Chiefs and Broncos but beat the Chargers; however, they also lost to the Patriots. Neither option is good here, but the Commanders' win helps one less rival's SoV for Buffalo.
Interest: Commanders win
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears - 1:00pm
The Browns (3-10) already lost to the Steelers once, the Ravens twice, and also the Patriots, though they play Buffalo in just over a week. The Bears (9-4) lost to the Ravens but beat the Steelers, making them a safer option that does less damage by winning. Also, AFC vs. NFC, nice and easy.
Interest: Bears win
Late Sunday Window
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints - 4:25pm
NFC vs. NFC. The Panthers (7-6) lost to Jacksonville, New England, and Buffalo. The Saints (3-10) lost to the Bills and Patriots only. There is a clear lesser of two evils here, however small.
Interest: Saints win
Detroit Lions @ L.A. Rams - 4:25pm
NFC vs. NFC, same rules apply. The L.A. Rams (10-3) are undefeated against AFC contenders this season, beating the Texans, Colts, Ravens, and Jaguars in the first seven weeks of the season. The Lions (8-5) beat the Ravens and lost to the Chiefs. The Rams help no one's strength of victory, but benefit multiple teams' SoS. The Lions give the Chiefs a little boost on SoV, but help almost no one on SoS. With KC on the brink of elimination anyway, root for Detroit.
Interest: Lions win
Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks - 4:25pm
The Colts (8-5) are in the news this week for many reasons. Chief amongst them is the replacement of the injured Daniel Jones with 44-year-old Philip Rivers. It's a desperate gambit, but Indy cannot let this season be for nothing. The Seahawks (10-3) seem to be the more serious playoff threat, but for one minor detail. Seattle plays in the NFC. Easy decision. A Colts loss drops the closest team in the hunt to the dregs of the playoff race, helping cement position for Buffalo.
Interest: Seahawks win
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos - 4:25pm
Keeping in mind the goal of securing the #1 seed, which is very much in play at the time of writing this, the Broncos (11-2) are one of only two teams ahead of the Bills. Denver would need to lose a minimum of two games for Buffalo to have a shot, and this could easily be one of them. Also, the Packers (9-3-1) are in the NFC. Easy choice.
Interest: Packers win
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers - 4:25pm
Far more of the Bills' AFC playoff racemates have battled the Titans (2-11) than the 49ers (9-4). Simple decision to help Buffalo with both SoS and SoV. Go Niners.
Interest: 49ers win
Sunday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys - 8:20pm
Another classic NFC vs. NFC matchup. We skip right to SoS and SoV tiebreakers. The Cowboys (6-6-1) have lost to Denver and play the Chargers next week. The Vikings (5-8) have lost to the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens. Rooting for the Vikings makes sense for the #1 seed, but the Cowboys winning helps secure the Bills' Wild Card spot. For now, the goal is the #1 seed.
Interest: Vikings win
Monday Night Football
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers - 8:15pm
The Dolphins (6-7) aren't technically eliminated from a playoff spot, but their lowly 1% chance isn't exactly favourable. The Steelers (7-6), on the other hand, are the 4th seed. Hardly fair, is it? Perhaps an AFC North featuring the Miami Dolphins would have yielded different results. It's not for us to say.
Pittsburgh is a team Buffalo has beaten soundly this season, and a preferable opponent to the Baltimore Ravens. Their hold on the AFC North is tenuous, and they don't fight with Buffalo for a Wild Card spot at the moment. Their winning their division shapes up a slightly more comfortable AFC picture for the Bills.