After a thrilling Week 1 victory, Buffalo Bills fans don't have to wait long for an encore. Josh Allen's squad takes on the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football in what should be one of their toughest tests of the season.
With limited time to prepare on a short week, Buffalo will have to rely on its talent and physicality to overcome the 1-0 Lions. The Bills are currently 5.5-point favorites, per ESPN, but Detroit is more than capable of pulling off the upset.
If the Bills can check these four boxes, though, they'll leave Week 2 with a perfect record.
Bills WR DJ Moore has to win one-on-ones
If any team is going to expose the Bills' biggest weakness in the passing game, it may be the Lions. That may seem unlikely given Detroit's limited secondary, but the numbers show that Josh Allen tends to struggle against man-heavy schemes like the one Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard deploys.
In 2025, Allen posted 0.16 EPA per play against zone coverage, per Sumer Sports, ranking fifth in the NFL. Against man coverage, that number was cut in half at 0.08 EPA per play, ranking 14th. In almost every area, Allen has been a league-average passer against man looks in recent years.
Of course, that's largely due to the makeup of his receiver room. The Bills haven't had a pass catcher who thrives against man looks in years. Whether Moore can be that player will be tested against the Lions, who led the league in Cover 0 looks in Week 1 by a wide margin.
Defensive coverage rates in Week 1
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Moore hasn't exactly excelled against man coverage throughout his career. Across his final two seasons with the Chicago Bears, he caught just over 50% of his targets against man coverage while catching over 70% against zone coverage.
If he can create separation against the Lions' cornerbacks, Allen will have a consistent answer in key situations.
Bills must establish the run on early downs
Despite putting up 36 points against what was expected to be one of the best defenses in football in Week 1, the Bills posted a below-average success rate on early downs. They were often forced into unfavorable down-and-distance situations and needed to come away with more than a few 50/50 balls to win the game.
Allen can make superhuman plays at any moment, but relying on him to do so consistently isn't sustainable. Even if the former MVP is the best in the league in those situations, he's going to turn the ball over more often than the Bills would like if he has to put the team on his back in every game.
Consistency and staying on schedule are going to be more important than anything in Week 2. The Bills left Week 1 with the highest explosive play rate in the NFL, thanks to multiple shots downfield from Allen. That's always going to be a part of the plan, especially in close games, and taking those plays away from Allen would limit who he is.
Still, the offensive line and running game need to give him easier opportunities on third downs. That's how Buffalo had such an elite offense in 2025. That below-league-average early-down success rate that made the Texans game such a nail-biter over the weekend? The Bills ranked second in that category in 2025.
Return to those levels of early-down efficiency, and Buffalo will keep control of the game from start to finish.
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs can't be allowed to take over
Through one week of football, Gibbs is the clear front-runner for the Offensive Player of the Year award. He logged a career-high 29 carries in Detroit's win over the New Orleans Saints and turned them into 156 yards and two touchdowns.
The Bills allowed 124 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to a Texans rushing attack that has been one of the worst in the NFL in recent years. They could be exposed against Gibbs and the Lions if they don't make improvements quickly.
Slowing down the run starts with Ed Oliver and Deone Walker, who both logged PFF run defense grades below 50 in Week 1. They need to take up space on the interior and allow the linebackers behind them to make easy plays.
Gibbs can be slowed down when defenses contact him early. While he was one of the most effective runners in the league last season, he was below average in yards after contact per attempt.
The running back is the focal point of Detroit's offense. He's going to get consistent looks, especially on early downs. If the Bills can limit his explosive gains, they'll put themselves in advantageous situations.
Bills' pass rush has to put pressure on Jared Goff
Once the Bills get into those favorable down-and-distance situations, they need to heat Goff up. The veteran QB is one of the most efficient passers in the NFL when kept clean, but he struggles when pressured.
His 26.67% success rate when pressured in Week 1 was well below league average. When he's forced to create plays off-schedule, his lack of athleticism is exposed.
Greg Rousseau will be the most important member of Buffalo's pass rush. He produced seven pressures in Week 1, leading the team by a significant margin. He'll line up against Lions rookie right tackle Blake Miller, who is vulnerable to quick pass-rush moves.
The Bills don't have to blitz consistently to get after Goff, but the defensive linemen will need to win their one-on-one opportunities. If the veteran quarterback is allowed to operate from a clean pocket throughout the game, Buffalo will be at a disadvantage that it may not be able to overcome.
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