Bills' future hangs in balance as clock ticks toward must-know offseason date

Sep 28, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA;  Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and tight end Dawson Knox (88) react after diving for a touchdown past New Orleans Saints cornerback Alontae Taylor (1) during the third quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Sep 28, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) and tight end Dawson Knox (88) react after diving for a touchdown past New Orleans Saints cornerback Alontae Taylor (1) during the third quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The 2026 offseason is nothing if not pivotal for the Buffalo Bills. Obviously, new head coach Joe Brady and general manager Brandon Beane want to do everything they can in the coming months to help this roster get to a Super Bowl as soon as possible.

But sometimes, to make the additions required to do just that means uncomfortable subtractions in other areas. And the Bills are looking at one such uncomfortable decision to make in the coming weeks.

That brings us to tight end Dawson Knox, who is set to enter the final year of his four-year, $52 million contract extension, which was restructured in 2024. However, 2025 could have very well been the 29-year-old’s final season with Buffalo, as June 1st becomes an important date for his future, and that of the Bills’ offense.

June 1 looms as defining moment for Dawson Knox’s future with Buffalo Bills

Knox has spent seven solid seasons in Buffalo, hauling in 27 touchdown catches, a franchise record at his position. However, beyond that one statistical outlier, Knox hasn’t done enough to warrant Buffalo eating his $17 million cap hit this offseason.

As such, Beane has to weigh his options with Knox’s future. The Bills found a better run-blocking tight end in Jackson Hawes in the fifth round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and while Dalton Kincaid battled injuries in 2025, the team is likely going to pick up his fifth-year option before May 1. Still, Knox’s veteran stature and familiarity with the offense make him more valuable than some outside Buffalo might credit him with, especially if the Bills are without Kincaid for a stretch again in the future.

Nonetheless, June 1 is the date to know concerning Knox, even if a decision comes much sooner. If the Bills cut Knox before June 1, the team will save $9.7 million while incurring a $7.4 million penalty. If they cut him after June 1, the team will save $12 million while the penalty drops to $5 million, all according to Over The Cap.

If the Bills want to immediately benefit financially from cutting Knox, then doing so before June 1 is the play. While Buffalo can release him before June 1 and designate him as a post-June 1 cut, the team wouldn’t see the financial benefit of the $7 million they’d be saving until after June 1, which, of course, means that $7 million isn’t available to use in free agency.

That said, cutting Knox isn’t the only option for Beane. Knox said in January he wants to stay in Buffalo, but understands that Beane doesn’t yet have all of the information to decide how to deal with his contract. An extension or a pay cut would lessen his cap hit, save the Bills some money now and in the future, and keep him on the roster for the 2026 season.

Still, the Bills have two capable tight ends on the roster, presumably for the long term, with many other holes to fill on the roster. There are 14 defenders headed to free agency, and with a new scheme to implement on that side of the ball, few of them will be brought back. Add in the needs at wide receiver and two starting offensive linemen heading to free agency, and the numbers start to push Knox out of the conversation.

Until Beane works his cap magic with some restructuring, it’s hard to see what direction the Bills will go with Knox. Once that takes place, Bills Mafia will have a clearer picture on Knox’s outlook as June 1 approaches.

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