Rich Eisen described the Buffalo Bills as a “Shrug Emoji” team on his show Monday following their convincing win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. At 8-4 with a couple of ugly losses on their resume despite high expectations and an MVP-caliber quarterback, in many ways, it's a fair assessment.
It’s hard to put the same type of faith in the Bills’ lofty postseason aspirations when losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins highlighted the team’s glaring weaknesses, particularly in stopping the run and consistently throwing downfield.
However, that win over Pittsburgh last Sunday may have given Sean McDermott the blueprint for this year’s postseason run.
How a dominant run game is reshaping the Buffalo Bills' offensive identity
ESPN analyst Benjamin Solak discussed the Bills' offense in his weekly ‘Second Take’ column and explained why the Bills’ rushing attack could be the team’s savior down the stretch.
He points out that Buffalo leaned on its passing game too much in the losses to Atlanta and Miami, throwing 63% of the time against Atlanta and 71% against Miami. In both instances, the Bills threw more often than their expected rate would suggest.
“It is perplexing to say about a team employing the reigning MVP at quarterback, but the Bills' offense has been remarkably better this season when it commits to the ground game,” Solak wrote.
That’s where James Cook’s production comes into play. Cook trails NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate Jonathan Taylor by just 54 yards for the league lead in rushing after his 144-yard performance against the Steelers. According to Solak and NFL Next Gen Stats, Cook has been stuffed for no gain or a loss only 26 times on his 231 carries this season, a mark matched by Cook and just four other backs since Next Gen Stats debuted.
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It’s not lost on Bills fans that the weakness of the downfield passing game centers on the receivers’ inconsistencies, less so than on Josh Allen. However, a dominant rushing attack can soothe those pains in the passing game through play action.
It may not be the way Bills fans are used to seeing the team succeed in the winter months. After all, Allen has made a career of making magic happen with his legs and his right arm in crunch time. But heading into the final stretch of the season, leaning on the ground game can help obscure the team’s biggest weaknesses by leaning on an unexpected strength.
Don’t look now, but the Bills have the league’s top rushing attack and the 10th-ranked passing game. They’re also 30th against the run and first against the pass defensively. Leaning on the ground game when it’s this effective, controlling the pace and flow of their upcoming contests, makes it difficult for opponents to stick with their own rushing attacks.
Then, when opponents are forced to throw to keep up with an efficient, if not overly explosive, offense from Buffalo, those teams are then staring down the top passing defense in the league.
It’s a recipe that has brought many a team a championship. It’s not too unlike recent seasons from the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, especially the latter, whose deep passing game has been nearly washed away entirely since Tyreek Hill went to Miami.
Now it’s a matter of seeing Buffalo stick with what works. Up next is the Cincinnati Bengals, which sports the league’s worst defense, 32nd against the pass, 31st against the run. Cook should be in for another monster day against another AFC North team desperate to correct its season in December.