The Buffalo Bills might be 4-2, but anyone watching closely can see the cracks forming beneath the surface. On paper, they are fine. At 4-2, they are keeping pace with the rest of the playoff contenders in the AFC, trailing only the Colts (5-1), Steelers (4-1), and Patriots (4-2). But this team is not nearly as good as the record suggests. They are trending in the wrong direction.
When the Bills beat the Ravens in Week 1, it looked like a statement win. But Baltimore is now 1-5, and it no longer feels impressive to beat the Ravens by one point, when the Chiefs and Lions beat them by eight and 17 points, respectively.
From there, Buffalo earned wins over the Jets (0-6), Dolphins (1-5), and Saints (1-5). Combined, the four teams they've beaten have a record of 3-21. Not particularly impressive.
As soon as Buffalo played a real team, they looked unprepared and lost to the Patriots in a game that featured incredibly sloppy play from Buffalo. The next week, they were sloppy again, losing to the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons in an upset on Monday Night Football.
The team is also suddenly undervalued in DVOA rankings. They have fallen to 12th, after finishing No. 4 in 2024.
Bills are not playing like a true contender through six games
This is not to say Buffalo won't make the playoffs. They still have games against the Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, and Jets, which should easily give them eight wins. From there, all it takes is two more wins the rest of the way (including teams like Kansas City and New England, who the Bills tend to play well against, and Carolina, a weak 3-3 team).
What it does mean is that Buffalo, in its current form, might be on its last breath. Changes might need to be made to the Bills if they want to get back to the world-beating dynasty they once were. Buffalo can still dominate the AFC, as long as they have Josh Allen. But with the current downward trend, something might need to be fixed.