The bye week is here and it couldn't come at a better time. That goes for the team and for the fans. The Bills limped into the break losing their last two games after a 4-0 start. Question marks and concerns surround this team, and they have been a popular topic amongst the media for a number of reasons.
As the Bills now look up to New England in the AFC East standings, some fans are pushing the panic button. While I feel like a lot of the concerns are valid, I keep reminding myself that there is still a lot of season to play. The Bills have also lost two games in a row every season since 2020 and have gone on to win the division. There is precedent for a stretch like this, but for some reason, I feel different about this year.
Josh Allen is in his prime, and the Bills need to take advantage of that. While they are still considered to be one of the top Super Bowl favorites, the eye test tells a different story. As we look ahead to the rest of the season, there are some major red flags with this team that should concern the Bills Mafia.
If the Lombardi Trophy is still the goal, there are some massive adjustments that need to be made. If they aren't, the Bills may not even win the division.
3 things Bills must fix before Week 8
Schemes and Play Calling
Let’s start with the offense. When you have a quarterback like Allen, the possibilities are endless on offense. He is a one of a kind athlete that opens up the playbook like no other quarterback in the league. With that being said, Joe Brady seems to be opening that book up to the wrong pages all of a sudden.
Where do we begin? There are a number of things that have frustrated fans (and Sean McDermott) over the last few weeks, so I will do my best to get those feelings across. I think we start where fans are the most pissed off, the end around to Elijah Moore.
These are the types of plays where Brady overcomplicates things for no reason. Don’t get me wrong, Brady has shown a lot of creativity in his time as OC, but one play like this in a high leverage situation will make you question everything. Why didn’t you just run Allen? Why not hand it to James Cook? All valid questions, the latter of which raises another huge issue.
Why didn’t we hand it to Cook there? He wasn't even on the field! Too many times in this game, Cook was inexcusably on the sideline in a huge spot. We will get into the overall weapons on the offense later, but it’s no secret that he is your best one outside of the quarterback. He should be on the field as much as possible.
I understand that the Bills look to utilize their trio of running backs, but for Cook to play just 53% of snaps in a game is downright unbelievable. He was successful in the game (17 carries for 87 yards), so that is not an excuse.
He has been unbelievable so far this season (second in the NFL in rush yards and third in touchdowns), so that can’t be the excuse either. They even had an example of what his usage could look like running riot on the other side in Bijan Robinson. The Falcons got him the ball in a number of different ways which is something the Bills should try to emulate with Cook, especially with the recent performance of the wide receivers.
If Brandon Beane decides to roll with this wide receiver room, it is going to fall more on Brady’s shoulders to scheme them open this season.
Monday night was a playbook on how to beat the Bills offense. Blitz the heck out of Allen, play man coverage on the backend and dare the receivers to get open. The Bills couldn't do it. Despite that, Brady continued to run the bigger personnel packages with sometimes just one or two receivers on the field during pass plays. Especially without Dalton Kincaid, that is not going to work. Brady needs to explore more three or four wide receiver sets, spread out the defense, and scheme them open with some different route combinations.
While the defense has had their issues, the offense is taking a lot of blame for these two losses, and rightfully so. It is a complete 180 of what fans thought coming into the season and if they want to see a run at the Super Bowl, Allen and Brady need to figure things out.
Moving over to the defense, Bobby Babich might be counting down his days as the play caller for this Buffalo defense. People are calling for McDermott to take over the play calling again, but he has publicly defended Babich this week and said he has the utmost confidence in his guy.
The first half of the Atlanta game was like nothing I have ever seen before. While it started with a great opportunity, it wasn’t meant to be and the wheels were off before the car was even started. There are a few things that contributed to that first half, and injuries are one of them, but the biggest disappointment was the lack of awareness and adjustments made during that game.
Bijan Robinson was in full control from the get go, but the Bills knew that he was going to be a problem. He is one of the best running backs in the league and teams know that he is going to get his stats, they just have to limit it. With that being said, the Bills in no way limited his production and compounded the issue by forgetting how to tackle.
The inexcusable problem with the defense is what they have been doing with number one receivers in the last two games. Sure, Stefon Diggs was back for a big revenge game and the Patriots have some other weapons in the pass game that the defense needs to be aware of.
Looking at Monday’s game, there is no excuse for what happened with Drake London. We all know what London’s stat line was at this point so we don’t have to repeat it again, but there is another stat that shocked me the other night and it should shock Bills fans too. No other wide receiver on Atlanta caught a single pass.
Tight end Kyle Pitts had three catches for 18 yards, but London was the only wideout with a catch all night. Don’t you think at some point a light would go off for Babich to maybe double team or at least have extra help on London? That was never the case, and it killed them.
Despite righting the ship and only giving up 3 points in the second half, giving up 396 yards of offense to just two players is not acceptable whatsoever. Unfortunately, the players on the field prevented the Bills from using certain types of schemes but there needs to be a better balance between zone and man coverage going forward. Babich really needs to do some serious preparation this week and have his 'A' game for Carolina next week.
Personnel
Fire up the trade rumors. As we approach the trade deadline, the rumors have been flying and I am here to say that they need to be true. The Bills are in desperate need of some moves if they want to round out this roster to truly contend for a title.
The biggest issue is at wide receiver. Right now, everybody is starving and the Beane rant on WGR550 a couple of months ago is not aging very well. The wide receiver room is not operating like they had intended because it is filled with role players and no one to break a game open.
A big part of the receiver room success falls on the development of Keon Coleman. It seemed after week one that he was starting to settle in and make the jump. Against the Ravens, Coleman pulled in eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown. Since then, Coleman has just 16 catches for 125 yards in 5 games. That is just not good enough for a player you are trying to build your wide receiver core around.
The rest of the receivers (outside of Khalil Shakir) have shown some flashes here and there, but are not nearly to the caliber of what the Bills need to win in February. We talked a bit about schemes earlier, but when it comes down to it, players need to step up and make plays.
When it comes to wide receivers, a little bit of faith has been lost in Beane’s decision making. That is both through the draft and trades/free agency. Something needs to change. There are some names floating around out there and I won’t get into the speculation, but something needs to be done. You are smack in the middle of your Super Bowl window; go all in on a big name receiver and move the picks to get him. We all saw what a third round discount play for Amari Cooper did for you.
The defense is a mess as well. The defense has had to deal with injuries and suspensions more so than the offense, so this section has a bit of a different vibe to it, but there are some very real concerns that need to be addressed.
The first is linebacker. With Matt Milano out and Terrel Bernard going down again, the Bills are lacking depth and a true playmaker in the middle of that defense. The talent level is not there currently and it has become a problem both in the run game and the passing game. While there is some promise with a few of the younger players, the Bills need to make a move for an established veteran leader to take control of the defense. Maybe someone like Demario Davis from the New Orleans Saints could fix that.
The other area of concern is the entire secondary. Aside from Christian Benford and Taron Johnson, the secondary is in shambles. The lack of talent and poor play was a big reason why the Bills weren’t able to mix up their coverages on Monday night. They just don't have the guys for it.
One big domino that we’re waiting to fall is the health of Maxwell Hairston. Even then, he has yet to play a snap in the NFL and will have a lot to learn stepping into the regular season coming off an injury.
With that being said, Beane needs to make a move in the meantime because Tre’Davious White is past his prime. He has struggled mightily in these last few games. When he isn’t giving up a completion, he’s getting called for a penalty. It was great to have him back in Buffalo, but he can’t be on the field anymore.
Staying in that same vein, Bills fans should be concerned that Jordan Poyer was getting meaningful snaps at safety Monday night. Albeit he didn’t play poorly, he is not the long term fix for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. When the Falcons weren’t picking on White, they were going after Taylor Rapp in coverage.
He was beaten time and time again and no adjustments were made. I’m not even going to get into his tackling efforts (despite the touchdown save at the end of the half) and the terrible angles he continues to take to the ball. The same goes for Cole Bishop. He hasn’t shown the jump Bills fans were hoping for and it has created some serious doubt in his ability to be their long term starter. The couple of necessary moves in the secondary might be the most important for this defense before the deadline.
Penalties
This is pretty cut and dry, but the discipline has not been there. That falls on McDermott and staff to some degree, but it also has a ton to do with the personnel and lack of talent.
Over the last three games, the Bills have been called for 30 penalties totalling 209 yards. Just an inexcusable and embarrassing statistic for a team known for their discipline.
If the opening play of the Falcons game wasn’t a very real metaphor for the last 3 games, then I don’t know what is. McDermott needs to be in everyone’s ear this week to clean these mistakes up because there is plenty to fix everywhere else.
As I mentioned before, the bye week feels like it is coming at the perfect time. Listen, I don’t want to be the one that is being overly negative, but I think that fans need to realize that some of these problems are a bit bigger than they may think.
The good part about all of this is that the Bills have shown an ability to be resilient and bounce back over the years, and they also have #17 at quarterback. The Bills will bounce back, it’s just a matter of how far they will go and what the entire organization will do to effect change and push the end of the season further down the road. Don’t forget, McDermott is 8-0 off a bye week as the Bills head coach. See you in Carolina next week.