The Buffalo Bills have a trap game test this week against the 3-11 Cleveland Browns. The AFC playoff field is still going through a chaotic end, with teams like the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens still poised to upend the current field trajectory, so Buffalo can’t afford a stumble in Week 16.
Of course, with the Browns holding one of the worst records in the NFL again this season, Cleveland has plenty of glaring weaknesses to exploit to ensure victory.
Here are three that Buffalo can hone in on this week to make sure they come back from their trip to Ohio with a W in hand, and potentially a clinched playoff spot as well.
Where the Cleveland Browns are vulnerable and how the Buffalo Bills can take control
Trust the rushing attack
The Browns have a stingy defense, but the run defense has been suspect at times. Since Cleveland’s Week 9 BYE, the run defense has regressed a bit, allowing over 125 yards on the ground in four of six games.
The Bills have found a late-season strength in their rushing attack led by James Cook, who enters Week 16 less than 30 yards behind Jonathan Taylor for the league lead in rushing yards. That’s in part thanks to the 331 yards he’s rushed for over the past three games.
Of course, Cook also fumbled four times in that span, twice each against the Steelers and Bengals. The Browns have forced 11 fumbles this season, tied with several teams for the 6th-highest total in the NFL, just five behind the Steelers' league-leading mark of 16.
That said, the Bills need to trust their ground game in this one and control the pace of the game. With the Browns’ lingering inconsistencies against the run, Cook gives the Bills a strong chance to do just that.
Get after Shedeur Sanders in the pocket
While Shedeur Sanders has lifted the Browns offense at times, he certainly hasn’t brought a renewed sense of consistency to the offense. After all, the fifth-round pick in last year’s draft still has plenty of his own flaws to overcome as he acclimates to the NFL level.
One of the biggest flaws in Sanders’ game is his propensity to hold on to the football for far too long in the pocket. In just four starts, Sanders has already taken 13 sacks, four more than Joe Flacco took in his four starts earlier this season and just five fewer than Dillon Gabriel in his six starts. Sanders holds onto the ball for an average of 3.33 seconds per dropback, the longest time in the league.
While Buffalo doesn’t carry the most imposing pass rush in the NFL, it’s certainly effective when Joey Bosa is on the field, ranking 17th in the league with 31 sacks this season. Buffalo simply needs to take advantage of this weakness that sticks out in Sanders’ game.
Sanders can be a solid young quarterback, but getting after him leads to mistakes. Last week, the Bears sacked Sanders five times and forced three interceptions. The Bills should aim to achieve a similar result.
READ MORE: Sean McDermott made it clear what the Bills think of Shedeur Sanders
Take advantage of short fields
One underrated aspect that holds the Browns back, despite their strong defense, is how often that defense is left defending short fields. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL for defensive starting position, with opposing offenses starting on average at their own 34-yard line.
While the Browns’ defense is second in the NFL in preventing first downs, they don’t have to allow many for opposing offenses to get into scoring position. Conversely, the Bills’ third-ranked scoring offense ranks 29th in starting field position, so they themselves aren’t used to getting many short fields.
With that in mind, there’s extra pressure on the kicking unit this week. Matt Prater is set to miss the contest with a quad injury, so the team signed journeyman kicker Michael Badgley as his replacement for Week 16. Badgley made 10 of 11 field goals for the Indianapolis Colts this season, but was inconsistent on PATs, going 18 of 21.
There could be a few instances of the Bills getting solid field position, getting a couple of first downs, and needing to turn to Badgley for a deep-range field goal attempt, especially if Buffalo starts slow again. If the Browns’ defense is able to stifle the Bills' offense to any degree, Badgley will need to step up when his number is called to make sure that Buffalo’s offense leaves the field on shorter drives with points on the board.