You don’t need to be a statistician to understand that this weekend’s Wildcard game between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins is likely going to be lopsided.
The Dolphins, first and foremost, are going to be without both of their top two quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailoa is out due to his second concussion this season, while backup Teddy Bridgewater is out with a hand injury.
That means rookie Skylar Thompson will get the start in place of both Tua and Bridgewater, and if you look at how the rookie has fared in his limited action this season, you’ll know it’s not going to be pretty.
As if you needed any more reason to believe the Dolphins will get crushed, just take a look at the latest line on the game.
The Buffalo Bills are favored by 13 points in this weekend’s Wildcard game with the Miami Dolphins.
As of Thursday, the Bills were officially favored in this game by 13 points. Depending on which outlet you trust, there have been lines as high as -13.5.
To understand the magnitude of this number, you have to understand that if the line stays this way until kickoff, it would make Miami the biggest Wildcard underdog in the history of the postseason. The previous record was -12.
On top of having to play Thompson under center, Miami is going up against the NFL’s second-best overall offense in terms of yardage per game, just behind Kansas City. The Bills are well-rounded on both sides of the ball, too, boasting a top-10 defense in terms of rushing and passing.
In the Bills and Dolphins two games against each other this season already, both have been close finishes. Early in the year, Miami won 21-19. In December, Buffalo avenged that loss with a narrow victory, 32-29.
Again, the difference in those two? Tua.
Without Tua, the Dolphins are likely going to be in for a long day in Buffalo.