Outlining Josh Allen’s Path to the MVP

After tearing a top-ranked Patriots defense to shreds and putting the Bills back in the driver’s seat in the AFC East, quarterback Josh Allen has also inserted himself back into the MVP race. After Week 16, Allen’s odds of winning the MVP this year sit at +1500 and he is fifth in MVP odds trailing Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Jonathan Taylor, and Patrick Mahomes. While the odds make it seem like Allen is a long shot with just two weeks to go, Josh Allen for MVP is not as far-fetched as you might think.

The Bills should get their full complement of offensive weapons back this week and will finish the season against two bottom ten pass defenses in the Falcons and the Jets. The Bills will need to win both games to control their playoff destiny which means Allen will have the chance to rack up tons of yards and touchdowns against these lackluster defenses.

Aaron Rodgers is the odds on favorite currently due in large part to an impressive touchdown to interception ratio of 33 touchdowns to only four interceptions. However, there is a chance the Packers’ quarterback could stumble in primetime against a tough Vikings’ defense. Fair or unfair, primetime games are disproportionately factored into awards like MVP. How they perform in primetime games make or break an MVP’s candidacy.

If Rodgers struggles with the nation’s eyes on him in primetime this week, that could be the opening that Allen needs to seize the award.

Down the stretch, Allen has come up huge in games that most of the country watched by going nuclear against the Buccaneers and Patriots. If he can rack up the stats against some awful defenses and win his team the division while getting help elsewhere, Allen could be the first Bills MVP since Thurman Thomas in 1991.

Josh Allen has been the Buffalo Bills offense this year

This year, Allen is currently accounting for 81.6% of the Bills’ total yards, which compares very favorably to other MVP candidates. Other quarterbacks in contention, Mahomes, Brady, and Rodgers, are at 77.6%, 77.4%, and 74.6%, respectively.

Whether or not he wins the award, no player in the NFL has been more valuable to their team this season than Josh Allen. Allen was dealt a lousy offensive line and no running game for most of the season and still has the Bills on track to accomplish everything they wanted to accomplish coming into the season.

With two games to play, the formula is set: go nuclear, win the division, and hope for help elsewhere.