Predicting Josh Allen’s 2021 stats if Buffalo Bills traded for Julio Jones

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports /

Last year, Josh Allen broke the record for most passing yards in a season with 4,544 passing yards.   The Buffalo Bills could make a big move by trading for Julio Jones that not only would set Allen up to match that total but surpass it.

While it is unlikely that the Buffalo Bills would trade for Julio Jones, due to the depth they have at the position and the salary cap limitations, it is fun to think about just how good this offense could be.

More specifically, just how good Josh Allen could be and what his stat line might look like with the addition of the former All-Pro, as well as an additional regular-season game.

The addition of Julio Jones would almost guarantee that the Bills will remain a pass-heavy attack like they were last year. It would give the Bills a legitimate opportunity to have two wide receivers surpass 1,000 receiving yards.

The Bills have accomplished this twice in their franchise history by having two receivers break this mark in the same season (James Lofton/Andre Reed in 1991, Eric Moulds/Peerless Price in 2002).

This is why Josh Allen would easily surpass the per game averages from a season ago. A realistic threshold would be an average of 40 passing attempts per game, which would be an increase of five from last year’s average. This would give Allen 680 passing attempts and if he keeps his 70% completion percentage that would result in 476 completions.

For the sake of this exercise, that is 80 additional completions this season that Josh Allen didn’t have last year and we will assume that all 80 go to Julio Jones. To determine how many receiving yards Julio Jones could contribute, I used his career yards per reception average of 15.2 yards. This would mean Allen would throw an additional 1,216 passing yards over last season.

This would move Josh Allen’s season passing yard total to 5,760 yards which would break the NFL single-season record for passing yards set by Peyton Manning, who threw for 5,477.

Allen’s touchdowns would also likely increase and by using his touchdown per attempt rate from last season (6.5%) he would be on pace to throw 44 touchdowns this coming season.

Josh Allen’s 2021 stats with Julio Jones: 476 completions, 680 attempts, 5,760 passing yards and 44 passing touchdowns

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While it is fun to think about what this offense could be, the Buffalo Bills are unlikely to be able to swing a trade for Julio Jones with limited cap space this year and significant contract extensions looming, most notably for Josh Allen.