The Fantasy Footballers have an on-going series titled “Path to WR1” and they recently added a piece on Buffalo Bills’ wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
Kyle Borgognoni of The Fantasy Footballers has been doing a series of articles on fantasy football wide receivers that could find themselves in a WR1 spot by the end of the season — in terms of fantasy production. Sammy Watkins was the latest to get an analysis from Borgognoni.
As much talent as Watkins has, the one thing standing in his way is injuries. Without them, he would’ve already become a WR1 in fantasy football leagues. As a result, he has seen plenty other wide receivers achieve that feat before him.
In the article on TheFantasyFootballers.com, Kyle Borgognoni gave a quick recap of the 2016 season for Watkins, as well as what to expect in 2017 — where he looks at potential target share, catch rate, receptions, yards and touchdowns. Lastly, he gives a percentage possibility of Watkins becoming a WR1 in fantasy football.
For the 2016 recap, Borgognoni gave a similar description that most anyone else would give. In one sentence, he explained it pretty clearly:
"“If you owned Watkins, then you had to be disappointed after you brugrudingly placed him in your IR spot for 10 weeks of the year if you hadn’t dropped or traded him by then,” wrote Borgognoni."
It was a disappointment for sure, especially considering all the optimism given by Rex Ryan, who was head coach at the time. Fans of the Buffalo Bills are growing tired of the constant foot issues, which caused him to miss more than half of last season.
Even when he was on the field, he didn’t seem to be the same 2015 Sammy Watkins. His chemistry was off with Tyrod Taylor and the explosiveness he was known for was a no-show — until the final two weeks of the season.
Once again, fans are left with heavy optimism as training camp approaches as Watkins appears to be on his way to being 100% by the start of the season.
Kyle Borgognoni gave several statistics that Sammy Watkins will have to improve next season if he wants to be a WR1 in fantasy football leagues. Here’s the run-down from the article:
Target Share: Watkins will need to re-gain his stature as the top target for Tyrod Taylor next season. Borgognoni predicts Watkins to hopefully see 23% of the team’s targets — around 130 targets.
Catch Rate: Watkins had a tough time bringing the ball down last season, only catching 53.8% of the passes thrown to him. That was roughly 10 percent less than in 2015 and almost 12 percent less than the NFL average. Kyle states that Watkins needs to be around that 60-65% mark.
Receptions: If Watkins can secure 60% of the 130 targets he is predicted to get, that would be a career-high 78 catches. Borgognoni also notes that Rick Dennison’s offense will likely be friendly to Watkins, which could help him bring in more catches.
Yards: Watkins is known as a deep-ball threat and it shows in his yards per target and yards per catch throughout his career. In 2015, he had 10.9 yards per target 17.5 yards per catch. Those numbers dropped to 8.3 yards and 15.1 yards in 2016. Borgognoni predicts roughtly 1,100 yards for Watkins.
Touchdowns: Most of Watkins’ touchdowns will come on deep balls, but Watkins really needs to improve his red-zone game. If he can be a bigger target in the red-zone, he will see his touchdown number increase mightily.
As far as whether or not Kyle Borgognoni thinks Watkins will be a WR1 in fantasy football by the end of the season, he gives it a 50-50 chance. Ultimately, health will be the deciding factor.
He was quick to say that Watkins would make the perfect WR2/FLEX option right out the gate. His upside will likely keep him at the top of the WR’s drafted this season.
Would you draft Sammy Watkins in your fantasy football league this season? I would. Leave your comments below!