BLD Picks NFL Games Against the Spread: Week 9


Let’s be real: a lot of people love football because it’s the easiest and funnest sport to gamble on. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Personally, I’m too broke to gamble (being a first-year public school teacher isn’t too lucrative), but I sure do watch a lot of football. I figure I should help* my loyal readers out with some gambling advice. Each week I’ll pick four games plus a fifth “Lock of the Week.”

*Help not guaranteed to be actually helpful.

Holy crap, I suck.

After going 9-1 combined in Week 4 and Week 5, I’ve completely tanked in the past two weeks, going 1-8-1. My one win? Taking the Bills over the Redskins last week. If I’m only going to win one game, I guess I’ll take that one.

But enough is enough. It’s time to win some bets.

(Home teams in CAPS)

Giants (+9) over PATRIOTS

Wait, the Giants are getting NINE points??? I realize the game is in Foxboro, but holy crap. The Giants are exactly the kind of team that gives the Pats problems: a team that can get pressure with its front four, play physical in the secondary, and score enough points to keep up. Plus Eli Manning is playing great right now and could feast on the struggling New England secondary. I’d probably take the Giants even if this line was five points lower.

Bengals (+3) over TITANS

When are we going to accept that fact that the Bengals are legitimately really good? That defense is fantastic. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in rushing defense, and now get to take on the rich, disinterested shell of a running back formerly known as Chris Johnson. (Have you seen the Titans play this year? Bad doesn’t even begin to describe how awful Johnson looks.) I’m probably going to eat these words later, but I really don’t think the Titans are any good.

Falcons (-7) over COLTS

Jim Caldwell is a pretty terrible coach. This Colts team is really starting to look like it has quit on the season. I just see the Falcons pounding the rock with Michael Turner over and over again and grinding out an easy 27-10 or so win.

Broncos (+7.5) over RAIDERS

I know, I know. Betting on Tim Tebow right now is crazy. And believe me, I’m not a Tebow guy. But Tebow isn’t as bad as he looked last week, and I’m going to assume Carson Palmer is terrible until I see otherwise. This line is really high for a game that could very well be a 13-10 slopfest.

And now…

*Note: don’t take the word “Lock” too seriously.

49ers (-3.5) over REDSKINS

I realize you don’t want to overreact to just one game in the NFL…BUT HOW IN THE HELL IS THIS LINE ONLY 3.5 POINTS????? Did anyone in Vegas WATCH the Bills-Skins game last week? Washington can not protect the quarterback at all, and even if they could, that quarterback is John Freaking Beck. The Bills had ten sacks last week. TEN. And the Bills might have the league’s worst pass rush. Holy crap. The 49ers might get 20 sacks in this one.

Last Week: 1-4

Overall: 19-18-3

Lock of the Week: 5-3