The time has come, Bills fans. The playoffs have arrived and the Buffalo Bills have earned themselves another spot in the postseason, this time as a Wild Card team.
Buffalo heads on the road to take on a very hot Jacksonville Jaguars team, who enter the game winners of their last eight. On paper and at the sportsbooks, this game is about as even as it gets. The chatter in the media has been pretty balanced, but it seems like more people are giving the slight edge to the Jags.
Leading up to Sunday’s kickoff, I took a deep look into the matchup and landed on three key things that the Bills need to do if they want to win this game.
Don’t Abandon the Run
I know what you are thinking, and I will start with this; last year in the Wild Card round the Denver Broncos were the second ranked rush defense in the NFL. The Bills put up 210 yards on the ground in that game. So yes, Jacksonville has the top rushing defense in the NFL when it comes to yards per game (85.6) and while this is an impressive number, it needs to be shown with another number. The Jags’ run defense has only seen 369 rush attempts this season, the fewest in the NFL. While they have been stout in most of the games, this tells me another story. The numbers are low because teams have been attacking their less than stellar pass defense more often. I think the Bills can still attack this run defense and have success.
So how do the Bills take advantage? With the Jags’ pass defense also being a vulnerable option, the Bills need to keep Liam Coen and the Jaguars guessing. If they can get even a slightly above-average run game established, the Bills can lean into the very dangerous and successful play-action offense that we’ve seen more of this season.
One of the main statistics that stood out in favor of the Bills highlights the Jaguars’ defensive sets. This season, Jacksonville has played with a ‘light box' (six or seven down lineman and linebackers) 82.2% of snaps. Against those types of fronts, James Cook averages 5.27 and 6.15 YPC respectively. That type of damage will force Coen to make a very difficult decision and could play very nicely into the next key for the game.
Feed the Tight Ends
While this year has been up and down for the passing game as a whole, the Bills players and fans know that the offense is exponentially more dangerous when the tight end group is healthy and involved. Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes have shown some flashes this season and are extremely valuable to their overall game plan, but Dalton Kincaid is the straw that stirs the drink.
Having Kincaid on the field has been half the battle, but when he is, the numbers speak for themselves (excludes week 18).
- With Kincaid: 9-2, 30.1 PPG, 6.1 YPP, Allen 0 INT (on the field)
- Without Kincaid: 2-3, 23.0 PPG, 5.4 YPP, Allen 10 INT (off the field)
Kincaid has proven to be Allen’s most reliable and trusted target when he is on the field and has a knack of getting open more often than any other pass catcher. How do we know that? When throwing to Kincaid, Allen has a QB rating of 149.2. No other pass catcher in the NFL has a higher number than that. Kincaid’s health and usage is monumental in this game.
Jacksonville has shown vulnerability against the tight end position as well. They rank sixth worst in receptions per game and tenth worst in yards per game surrendered to the tight ends. A spot to attack and exploit for Buffalo.
Don’t Lose the Turnover Battle
It’s as clear cut as it sounds. The Bills need to take care of the ball more than ever and try to cause some turnovers of their own in this game. Jacksonville are second in the NFL with 31 takeaways and are third in turnover differential (+13). For comparison, the Bills rank 15th with 20 takeaways and 12th in differential (+1).
Why is it so important that the Bills win or at least tie the turnover battle? They are 11-0 this season when they do so.
This game will be one of the most anticipated around the league and it surely will not disappoint. The Bills come in with a lot of playoff experience compared to Jacksonville, so let’s see if the execution is there for Sean McDermott and company.