The Buffalo Bills have had their week of preparation for their first postseason test against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And what a test it is, the Jags won their last eight games to close an impressive turnaround season as AFC South champions.
All told, the 14-win Jaguars don’t have many weaknesses. Their offense is explosive, especially in the passing game over the middle of the field, and their defense finished the season as the league’s top-ranked unit against the run.
Still, the Jags are far from infallible, and the Bills are far from heavy underdogs. If the Bills can expose the Jags’ weaknesses, despite how well they cover them up, they’ll uncover their best shot to advance to the Divisional Round.
Three ways Buffalo Bills can crack Jacksonville Jaguars' postseason armor
Stick to the ground game, just keep it between the tackles
While the Jags boast the league’s top run defense, it is in some small part due to the leads that Jacksonville often builds. After all, no defense saw fewer run plays than the Jaguars in 2025.
That said, the Jaguars don’t have elite talent on the interior of their defensive line. Travon Walker has moved inside to help out at times, which has helped keep the averages low on the ground. Jacksonville’s 3.9 yards per carry allowed was the second-best rate in the league in 2025.
Of course, Buffalo’s top-ranked rushing attack doesn’t come with many caveats itself, and that’s exactly why the Bills should continue to lean on the league’s rushing leader, James Cook, as much as possible. It’s not about getting huge numbers against a stingy defense, though. It’s about getting consistent yards by attacking one of the few weak spots on the Jags’ roster.
The Jaguars have speedy linebackers and dominant edge defenders, so those stretch and outside zone runs might not be worth it. Power runs inside should be Buffalo’s ticket to offensive consistency, even if it means fewer explosive runs overall.
Win third downs, and keep them short
With a consistent run game to keep the offense on schedule, that should open the door for the Bills to take advantage of another poor tendency of the Jaguars’ defense: their third-down efficiency.
The Jaguars’ defense ranked 20th in the league in third-down conversion rate, allowing 40.4% of third downs to be converted. Where the Jags struggle most, understandably, is on manageable third-down distances. When facing third and 1-3 yards to go, the Jags allow 3.84 yards per play. When facing 4-6 yards to go, the Jags allow 4.82 yards per play.
It’s a steady goal for any offense, but it speaks to the importance in this game to stay on schedule offensively. Josh Allen recently spoke about self-scouting himself and mentioned the importance of making sound decisions to keep the offense out of undue harm by making safer decisions.
READ MORE: Josh Allen self-scouts after rollercoaster season, eyes playoff redemption for Bills
He and the offense must stay on schedule and keep their third-down attempts manageable. In the same vein, though, when the Bills get those manageable third downs, they have to actually convert them. The Jaguars are the league’s third-ranked defense on fourth downs, allowing just 11 conversions on 31 tries this season.
Bring effective pressure against Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence played at an MVP level down the stretch. In his last six games, Lawrence has thrown for 1,750 yards with 19 total touchdowns and just one interception. Only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have put together such a run in the final six games of a season.
Of course, Rodgers and Brees didn’t waltz to the Super Bowl afterwards, either, so the Bills can still play spoiler to Lawrence’s second trek through the NFL playoffs. The number one way to do that is to bring pressure and get home.
For what it’s worth, the Bills don’t blitz often, just 21.8% of the time, and Lawrence himself is rather strong against the blitz, boasting a higher completion percentage when blitzed than otherwise. Still, Lawrence was sacked 41 times in 2025, one more time than Allen was. The four-loss Jags were 1-3 when Lawrence was sacked four or more times.
Granted, the win was the most recent, beating the Broncos despite the league’s most productive pass-rush unit getting to him five times. So, while racking up sacks won’t ensure a Buffalo victory, whether or not they can affect Lawrence with four-man pressure will.
Greg Rousseau finished the season with four sacks in the final three games. Hopefully, he and Joey Bosa can wreak havoc in the pocket to give the Bills’ defense the edge they need.