Sadly, the Buffalo Bills were unable to pry the number one seed away from the Kansas City Chiefs, who clinched the top seed and the first-round bye on Christmas Day. With the Bills pulverizing the Jets in Week 17, that means that Week 18 is a meaningless game for the AFC East champions.
It won't matter if the Bills destroy the Patriots in Week 18 or if they themselves get destroyed because either way, the Bills are the number two seed. While the Patriots can lock up the number one pick with a loss on Sunday, the players aren't playing for draft spot. They'll play hard and try to hand their divisional foe a loss.
With the Bills being the two-seed in the playoffs, they'll host whoever earns the seven-seed, which can be one of three teams. The three teams fighting for the final playoff spot are the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, and Miami Dolphins with the Broncos being the most likely ones to win the playoff berth.
Let's rank these teams from "easiest" to hardest. Who do the Bills want to face and who do they hope to avoid like the plague?
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3. Miami Dolphins
How they get in: MIA win + DEN loss
It'd be a dream come true if the Bills could get the Dolphins in the wild card round because while yes, beating one team three times in a single season isn't an easy task, doing so to the Dolphins doesn't seem daunting. The Bills haven't had any issues against the Dolphins in recent years, with their last loss against them coming in September of 2022.
These two even met up in the playoffs before with the Bills narrowly staving off a Dolphins upset. Skylar Thompson started that game and the Dolphins managed to keep it close but that Dolphins team was far more talented than the 2024 version of the Dolphins.
If the Bills could handpick who they faced in the first round of the playoffs, it'd definitely be the Dolphins because recent history has boded well for them in the rivalry.
2. Denver Broncos
How they get in: DEN win or MIA + CIN losses
Truthfully, if it's not the Dolphins, the Bills will have a tougher seventh-seed opponent than what we're used to seeing. The Broncos had a nice bounce-back year despite having what looked to be a weak roster and a rookie quarterback. That hasn't stopped them from being on the verge of a playoff berth where a trip to Orchard Park would be on the agenda with a win on Sunday.
The Broncos have the best shot of being the Bills' opponent so hopefully fans are ready for them. All Denver has to do to get to the postseason is beat the Chiefs' backups in Week 18. If they can't do that, they probably don't deserve to be in the dance anyway.
Denver could be a sneaky first-round opponent, as their defense has been prolific in 2024. The Broncos lead the league in sacks so their pass-rush versus a solid Bills offensive line could be a fun match-up to watch but it'll definitely be more pressure coming Josh Allen's way.
Rookie Bo Nix started off rough but has come into his own late in the season. Considering how vulnerable the Bills defense has looked against good teams could be a cause for concern for fans in this match-up but hopefully, Buffalo's experience vs. Denver's inexperience in the playoffs is the key here.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
How they get in: CIN win + DEN + MIA losses
The Bengals have the toughest path to the playoffs and it's their own fault. They had a shot in so many games but couldn't put their opponents away and are now in desperation mode as they enter the final week of the season.
The Bengals having to fight like hell to make it into the postseason is great news for the Bills because fans should want no part of having to face Cincinnati. While the Bengals' defense is hot garbage and has been all year, Joe Burrow has been playing at an MVP-level and would likely be in the running for the award if his team wasn't so bad for a chunk of the season.
If the Bills had to host the Bengals in the first round, it'd be a nightmare scenario for Buffalo. Burrow would have no problem carving up the Bills secondary and this game would likely be a shootout. While Bills fans typically feel confident in shootouts thanks to having Allen as their quarterback, doing so in the first round of the playoffs isn't what you want.
Throw in that the Bills have struggled against Cincinnati during the Allen/Burrow era. During the 2022 playoffs, the Bengals went into Buffalo in the divisional round and blew out the Bills in a snow-filled game. The following season, the Bills lost to the Bengals on the road in primetime.
It's a good thing that the Bengals need a miracle to get into the playoffs because it would not be fun having to play them in the first round. If any team could come into Orchard Park and knock the Bills off their pedestal in the wild card round, it'd be Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.