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Steelers vs. Bills prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Wild Card Weekend

By Iain MacMillan

Oct 9, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws the ball
Oct 9, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws the ball / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
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UPDATE: The Bills versus Steelers game has been postponed until Monday at 4:30 PM due to inclement weather in Buffalo on Sunday. What follows is the original write up previous to the postponement.

The Buffalo Bills have completed the improbable feat of winning five-straight games to close out the season to clinch the AFC East and host at least two playoff games as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

The Bills will enter Super Wild Card Weekend as the biggest favorite amongst all teams. Can they avoid the upset and advance to the Divisional Round? In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on this game.

If you want to find out my best bet for all six NFL Wild Card games, check out this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets".

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Steelers vs. Bills odds, spread, and total

Steelers vs. Bills betting trends

  • Steelers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the Steelers' last five games
  • Steelers are 11-4 straight up and ATS in their last 15 games vs. Bills
  • Steelers are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games vs. AFC opponents
  • Bills are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games
  • The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams

Steelers vs. Bills injury reports

Pittsburgh Steelers injury report

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick - S - Questionable
  • T.J. Watt - LB - OUT
  • Trenton Thompson - S - Questionable

Buffalo Bills injury report

  • Gabe Davis - WR - Questionable
  • Ty Johnson - RB - Questionable
  • Tyrel Dodson - LB - Questionable
  • Dion Dawkins - OT - Questionable
  • Rasul Douglas - CB - Questionable

Steelers vs. Bills how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, January 14
  • Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Venue: Highmark Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Pittsburgh Steelers Record: 10-7
  • Buffalo Bills Record: 11-6

Steelers vs. Bills key players to watch

Pittsburgh Steelers

Mason Rudolph: The Steelers third-string quarterback has been on fire in his three games that he's started and is a big reason for Pittsburgh being in the postseason. he has completed 74.3% of his pass attempts for an average of 9.7 yards per throw. Can he keep that up in the Steelers' toughest challenge to date?

Buffalo Bills

James Cook: Josh Allen may be the most important player on this team but Josh Cook might be the biggest key to their offensive success. When they get the chance to establish the run and take the pressure off of Allen's shoulders, the Bills look almost unstoppable on offense like they did against the Cowboys just a few weeks ago. If Cook starts to "cook", the Bills may just run away with this game.

Steelers vs. Bills prediction and pick

Don't be blinded by the few impressive wins the Steelers had down the stretch. Let's remember who they beat in these games. They took down two of the worst defensive teams in the NFL in the Bengals and Seahawks and then beat a Ravens team that was resting a good portion of their starters.

Let's look at this Steelers team as a whole. They enter the postseason ranking last amongst all playoff teams in Net Yards per Play, ranking 26th in the NFL. Only the Cardinals, Bengals, Broncos, Panthers, Commanders, and Giants rank worse.

They will also be missing their biggest difference maker on defense, T.J. Watt, who might be the most impactful defensive player in the league.

They also have been the luckiest team in the NFL, if you believe in those metrics.

Now, they take on a Bills team who has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the second half of the season. Their defense, which was horrible to start the year, ranks fifth amongst all teams in opponent EPA dating back to Week 10.

Congratulations to the Steelers for making the playoffs, but they're completely outmatched in this spot and they're in for a rude awakening on Sunday afternoon.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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