Projecting Josh Allen's 2024 stats with Buffalo Bills

It took the Buffalo Bills over two decades to find their franchise quarterback once Jim Kelly stepped away from the NFL. When the 2018 NFL Draft arrived, it was no question that the Bills were going to be drafting a quarterback. They had just made the playoffs for the first time in 17 seasons with Tyrod Taylor under Sean McDermott’s first year as the head coach, then they traded Taylor to the Cleveland Browns. Brandon Beane had two first-round picks going into the draft but made multiple trades to climb up the board. On the first night of the draft, the Bills traded up five spots into the top ten to draft Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen.

The Bills left Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson on the board which is proving to be the right decision (even though Jackson is a two-time MVP). In his first two seasons, Allen had his growing pains but also displayed superstar flashes. The first big notable play of Allen’s career that caught fans’ attention was in Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings where he scrambled out of the pocket up the middle of the field and leaped over linebacker Anthony Barr to pick up the first down.

By the time the 2020 season came around, Allen had the best supporting cast around him with Cole Beasley, John Brown, and newly acquired Stefon Diggs. Allen finished second in MVP voting and helped the Bills finish 13-3, winning the AFC East for the first time in 25 years, and even brought the Bills to the AFC Championship game.

Since then, Allen has led the Bills to a division championship every single year and has a 63-30 record up to this point in his career. While he does have his moments that make you scratch your head about his decision-making, he makes up for it with his dynamic play whether it is throwing the ball 60+ yards, rushing for 20+ yards, or hurdling/trucking a defender.

The biggest knock on Allen’s game is his interceptions. He has only had one season where he has not thrown double digit picks (9 in 2019). Last season was one of Allen’s down years in terms of throwing the ball. While he did throw for over 4,300 yards, he threw just 29 touchdowns to 18 interceptions. Sure, maybe there were some plays when the ball bounced off the receivers hands but there were a good amount of careless turnovers by Allen himself. As a matter of fact, he only had three games where he didn’t throw an interception.

However, 2024 is a fresh start for Allen. He returns with Joe Brady (who is the full-time offensive coordinator) and has new weapons around him along with some returners from last year. Once Brady took over, Allen passed for 300+ yards just twice and averaged just under 240 yards per game. At the same time, the Bills found their run game with James Cook and did not need Allen to play super hero each week. It was a type of football that Bills fans had not seen in a long time since Allen was drafted.

Finishing with 4,306 passing yards, Allen clinched his fourth consecutive season of passing for 4,000+ yards. Going into 2024, Allen has a different offense around him so it may impact his passing stats but he is still the same dynamic player who can now elevate others around him. Not to mention, we have to consider the fact of what impact he brings in the run game. Even with the focus of the run game steering away from him, Allen still rushed for over 500 yards and a career high in rushing touchdowns (15).

Bills fans should be excited for yet another season of having Allen throwing the ball for the Bills, despite the changes that the team made this offseason.

Stats projections: 4,250 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 430 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns