Josh Allen For MVP - How The Bills Offense Leveled Up

For four years, the Buffalo Bills leant on Josh Allen to win them games, time and time again. Certainly, one could argue that every NFL QB is leant on and expected to win games, but they're far from 53 men. The game of football is too varied, played by too many men, touched by too many hands, and affected by too many unique people to ever assign complete blame or credit to a sole individual. For some players, however, individual excellence was a requirement for team success; Josh Allen was the most necessary man in the league. He still may be, but he's no longer alone. Shining brighter than ever, he's finally getting the help he deserved.

'Addition By Subtraction'

When we say 'Addition by Subtraction', we could mean many things. From a star player making way for a promising rookie, to a coach abandoning the ol' faithful plays and schemes to take a new direction, it's indicative of the understanding that 'in with the new' cannot happen until 'out with the old' does. Letting go of what has been is as critical to growth as discovering something new.

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This offseason, the Buffalo Bills were in the news for the 'Subtractions'. On offense, where our focus lies, the high-profile loss of Stefon Diggs was only one aspect. Gabriel Davis was also gone, and none of the additions seemed to do much to fill those gaps. Even now, the Buffalo Bills don't seem to have a clear-cut #1 at receiver. Losing a combined 1915 snaps (2023 reg. season) between your top two targets is a huge shift, and Buffalo were going to have to play differently without them.

Another massive change was the offensive line. The tackles and right guard were kept, but Josh Allen lost Mitch Morse, his starting center for the past five seasons. For the entirety of his growth as a player Allen had been ear to ear with Morse, reading the defense, learning the ropes, and becoming a star. He was a support that many may not have appreciated during his tenure, not just as a blocker but as a teacher and leader. When Allen needed training wheels, and he certainly did, he'd found them in his centre. Now, the wheels are off.

The Offense Of Yester-Year

That sentiment applies not only to the personnel around Josh Allen, but also the system. For years, the Buffalo Bills relied on players catching the ball that Josh Allen threw them, for the yards that Allen threw it for. It was effective, to a degree, but still an underwhelming and simple understanding of how to move the ball. When the 2023 Bills used pre-snap motion, it was to discern coverage, or make simple adjustments to a play. They used it above average, but without intent. Receiver placement was about getting to a point on the field to catch the ball, and no more.

With the level of talent around Allen, it worked. Without those same players, there had to be changes. In 2022, the Buffalo Bills were second worst in yards after catch per completion (YAC/Cmp), despite scoring the fifth-most touchdowns in the NFL. If Josh Allen wasn't moving the ball, the ball simply wasn't moving. We saw similar rates in 2023.

It started with firing Ken Dorsey, and appointing Joe Brady to be the offensive coordinator.

The Next Generation

The move has been immediately effective. Receivers are consistently being placed in positions to succeed, where there's room to run and the Bills don't need to rely on a laser to the sidelines in order to pick up a first down. Downfield blocking is prevalent, and time after time Allen is given the option to simply target the open man. He's still making those hero plays, and his individual talent is still the Buffalo Bills most coveted asset, but it's not the only way to win anymore.

The Bills are using pre-snap motion on offense at a whopping 80.4% (per NextGenStats), an over 20% leap from their highest usage rate. They're finding ways to manufacture open receivers in the short area and turn them upfield to pick up plus yardage. Khalil Shakir, for example, is looking like a premier receiver, but his targets are mostly coming on short throws. With 168 yards this season, 117 have come after the catch, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. His longest play has been 27 yards, so no breakaway plays have warped our conception of his play. Shakir has also caught all 14 of his targets. He highlights the implementation of similar philosophy across the roster; Josh Allen has 61.8% of his yards come after the catch this season (2022: 37.9%, 2023: 46.3%), per Steve Palazzolo. For the first time, Allen doesn't need to throw 10 yards to get 10 yards. He's averaging by far the lowest average depth of target of his career, and it's for the betterment of the team.

Josh Allen's Latest Growth

It's not just statistical improvements either, but a tape ones. Numbers don't always prove the theory; Sometimes, people still need 'the eye test'.

Josh Allen's most recent development is his improved patience and control of the offense. Without Morse, management of the entire unit has been a new task, and one he's excelled in. With new levels of pre-snap motion, and the understanding that seven seasons as a pro has awarded him, Allen has been more vocal than ever, to the team's benefit. Whether it's the adjustment of a play based on what he sees, the movement of a receiver, the switch of a blocking assignment, or just basic blitz recognition, Josh Allen does more before the play starts than ever before.

Josh still Josh, as evidenced by the off-script throws and hero plays, but he has help now. The talent level around him is near-unquestionably lower, but the assistance they provide him is more suited to his needs. For years, we asked Allen to take the 'easy' throws, but they weren't there. A 5-yard pass to a covered player is truly no safer than a 25-yard pass to someone in the same situation. There was no choice but to do it himself.

Your MVP To Be

Now, Josh Allen leads the MVP race by a wide margin through three weeks, and it's a credit to his growth that he's able to simply take what is given. The comfort he's provided by an offense that can supply the 'easy' button makes the Buffalo Bills an absolute juggernaut, and his independence at the line of scrimmage translates to a playbook he can write and re-write at will.

""It’s a fun and wonderful thing when you got a bunch of guys that don’t care about the stats; they don’t care about the touchdowns""

- Josh Allen, Week 4 Press Conference

An offense that had always been Josh Allen's in name is now just that. Joe Brady, consistent blocking, and a new set of playmakers, have given him that much.

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