Dolphins vs. Bills prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 4

Can the Bills hand the Dolphins their first loss of the season?

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills have a chance to retake control of the AFC East division in Week 4 if they can beat the Miami Dolphins in Buffalo. 

Miami enters this game off a 70-point showing against the Denver Broncos which moved the team to 3-0 on the season. The Dolphins have scored 130 points in three games, and they lead the NFL in yards per play. 

In no way is this an easy matchup for Buffalo, but the Bills may be getting slept on coming into this game. Buffalo has outscored its opponents 75-13 over the last two weeks, and the team actually is favored in Week 4 against Miami. 

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Dolphins vs. Bills odds, spread and total for NFL Week 4

Dolphins vs. Bills betting trends

  • The Dolphins are 3-0 against the spread this season. 
  • The Bills are 2-1 against the spread this season.
  • The OVER is 2-1 in the Dolphins’ games this season.
  • The UNDER is 2-1 in the Bills’ games this season.
  • Miami is 2-0 ATS on the road in 2023. 

Dolphins vs. Bills injury reports

Miami Dolphins injury report

  • Tyler Kroft – questionable
  • Jaylen Waddle – questionable
  • Salvon Ahmed – questionable
  • Jaelan Phillips – questionable
  • Connor Williams – questionable
  • River Cracraft – questionable

Buffalo Bills injury report

  • Ryan Bates – questionable
  • Von Miller – out

Dolphins vs. Bills how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, Oct. 1
  • Game Time: 1 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Highmark Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Miami Dolphins Record: 3-0
  • Buffalo Bills Record: 2-1

Dolphins vs. Bills key players to watch

Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert: All the hype for the Dolphins has been around rookie running back De’Von Achane after his 200-yard performance in Week 3, but Mostert scored four touchdowns in that game and has been great in 2023 – averaging 5.9 yards per carry with six rushing scores. 

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen: This is a huge game for Allen, as he has a chance to get himself in the MVP race, and the Bills in the lead for the AFC East with a win at home. Tua Tagovailoa has gotten all the hype this season, but Allen has been great in the past two games. 

Dolphins vs. Bills prediction and pick

I absolutely love the Bills in this matchup as they are probably the best defense that the Dolphins have faced this season. 

Here’s where the teams that Miami has faced rank in yards per play allowed in 2023:

  • Denver: 32nd (last)
  • Los Angeles Chargers: 31st
  • New England Patriots: 4th

The game against the Patriots, the Dolphins scored just 24 points and had to survive a late Pats drive to win. 

Meanwhile, Buffalo has forced more turnovers than any team in the NFL this season (9), and has been absolutely dominant since losing in Week 1. 

I don’t want to take anything away from the Dolphins’ 70-point game since very few teams have even come close to that mark, but Buffalo is a significantly better team than Denver. The Broncos are 0-3 on the season for a reason, and they have a turnover differential of minus-4 in 2023. 

Since 2019, the Bills are 7-1 against the Dolphins in the regular season and 1-0 in the playoffs. I think Buffalo is a great bet to get a win at home in Week 4.  

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.