Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans - Final Score Prediction

One of the mostly hotly coveted matchups of the 2024 NFL season is finally upon us. The Buffalo Bills go to the Houston Texans, where they'll find a familiar face, or several. From Jerry Hughes to Robert Woods to Tim Settle to the most notable Stefon Diggs, it's a family reunion. One small issue; There's a football game to be played in the middle of it. How do they stack up? Let's dive in.

Houston, Texas, Baby

There wasn't supposed to be bad blood, but as media commentary flirts with the half-quotes of players and staff surrounding the teams, there may well be some unresolved issues. Stefon Diggs requested a trade, and the Buffalo Bills knew they had to move on. They sent him somewhere he can still compete, and got a decent return for him. All good, no? Based on the words of his new quarterback in his latest press conference, perhaps he has stronger feelings on it.

""I'm glad that he's finally having fun playing the game and doing what he loves to do because he loves football a lot""

- C.J. Stroud on Diggs, Thursday Oct. 3rd

Diggs' fellow WR, Nico Collins, echoes that statement with his appearance on Adam Schein's podcast.

""We know it’s a big game for Stef. We know what we gotta do, we gotta go out here and win for Stef.""

- Nico Collins on Bills vs. Texans

Still, it's a non-issue for the Bills now. As much as fans may be sick of the coverage, they'll have to put up with it for a while longer. We, however, can move on to what actually matters- the coverage.

Prediction #1 - Cook and Allen Rumble On

For Buffalo to win this game, they'll need to excel on the ground in open field. The Texans have an average rushing defense, which will be missing some of it's pass-rushing depth. Josh Allen and James Cook can lean on their linemen's effectiveness in power run plays and march downfield. With their ability to contain the pocket handicapped, Josh Allen should have ample scramble opportunities, and Cook should get some outside runs as well.

The red zone defense for Houston buckles when faced with short throws into the end zone, with six of their eight allowed passing TDs falling within eight yards. They also shore up against the run in confined spaces, giving little room to work with. The Bills will likely need to throw it to end drives with a touchdown, but Josh Allen is more than capable of living dangerously at the goal line. He might need to. Still, if the Bills can't get this ball moving on the ground, it could be a long night.

Prediction #2 - Houston Lets It Fly

Houston are as pass-happy as any offense in the NFL; Only one team has caught more balls than the Texans. The Bills are as secure a passing defense as any in the league, allowing a league-lowest 5.5 yards per attempt. One of these immovable objects must make way, but who? The answer lies in the separation. As good as Buffalo has been at manufacturing an open receiver, things are bleak for the Bills secondary. According to a new dataset by Brian Burke of ESPN analytics, which he's used to determine the ability of a receiver to get open and create an easy completion on any given route, the Texans core is better than anyone at it.

By Burke's data, Houston's top-3 WRs all fit within the top-11 of receivers league-wide at getting open for high-probability completions. Stefon Diggs ranks second overall, with an open rating of 84, Nico Collins follows at third with 83, and Tank Dell at eleventh with 69. For context, the Buffalo Bills' first appearance on this list is at 65th where Khalil Shakir, who is now injured and will miss this game, holds a lowly 47.

The Texans are going to find ways to get open for C.J. Stroud consistently. Buffalo can mitigate this by cutting off players at the catch point and limiting yards after contact, a place that only one Texans receiver excels (Collins). Still, the Bills will have to find other ways to win this game, because shutting out the passing game like in the other games this season is simply off the table.

Prediction #3 - Final Score

The Buffalo Bills have taken too many hits, and the injuries that are piling up don't do them any favours. Houston excels on offense in a way that Buffalo's depleted middle of the field will struggle to stop, and Houston's defense is able to focus on the few playmakers Buffalo has left outside of Josh Allen. With Von Miller missing four games with a suspension, and Ed Oliver suffering a hamstring injury, Stroud will have more time to make things work. Neither roster is perfect, and both have injuries, but the fates lopsided this game in the favour of the home team.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills fall to the Houston Texans 27 - 20.

It's a struggle, finding balance between journalistic integrity and obsessive, unrelenting fandom. Today, we stick with integrity. Too much has gone wrong off the field for Buffalo to expect them to pull this out of the bag. It'll be a close one, and is entirely winnable, but they need play from the defense that they simply can't get right now and the offense will struggle if it turns into a shootout.

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