Lose to the Chargers but win the final two games
I really don't see this happening at this point but let's say it does. If Buffalo inexplicably drops this one against the Chargers, their odds drop to 27%, so they aren't out of it and it's not out of the question they can still get in, despite what a lot of fans think. A win against the Patriots in week 17, would then increase their odds back up to 31%. Now keep in mind, that this playoff machine takes into account the likelihood of a team beating another. From what I can tell, they don't give the Bills very good odds of beating the Dolphins in week 18, seems that is below 50% odds.
So, to continue with this particular scenario, if the Bills lose this weekend to the Chargers but win the last two, then their playoff odds come in at a solid 73% chance. The bottom line is this, that week 18 showdown with the Dolphins is going to be a massive game, one of epic proportions. It almost seems Buffalo's playoff hopes really hinge on beating Miami in that final game.