The Buffalo Bills winning the AFC East
The Dolphins' final three games are against the Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, and the Bills. Buffalo is still two games behind the Dolphins, so we are waiting for the Dolphins to drop one more, which I believe they will. I recently predicted the Dolphins will lose all three of their final games and while I think that will happen, it doesn't need to, as long as the Bills keep winning and the Dolphins drop just one, the division will be up for grades in week 18.
If the Bills win the division, they will host at least one playoff game. But what are the odds of Buffalo pulling this off? Many fans still believe Buffalo needs to win out and while that would certainly help, it's not a necessity. A 10 - 7 record, I believe would get you in the playoffs, but it also depends on which game the Bills were to lose and of course, everything can change depending on other teams.
1. Bills win the next three games
If the Bills defeat the Chargers, and Patriots heading into week 18 and the Dolphins lose one of their next two, the Bills will have a 43% chance of winning the division. If the Bills win out and the Dolphins lose one of either the Cowboys or Ravens games, the Bills will win the AFC East for the fourth year in a row and host a playoff game on Wildcard Weekend.
2. Lose one against either the Chargers or Patriots
Just writing the header to this point sounds gross. I just don't see the Bills losing either one of these games, but I'll play devil's advocate here and play the "what if" game. If Buffalo loses one of the next two, they would have only a 12% chance to win the division; however, if my prediction comes to pass and the Dolphins lose both games against the Cowboys and Ravens, then Buffalo's chances remain 43%.
The moral of the story here is to win out and the Buffalo Bills likely win the AFC East for the fourth consecutive time and host a playoff game. Lose just one of the next two and those odds plummet and wildcard is the most likely road to the playoffs for the Bills.