The Buffalo Bills winning the AFC East
A week ago, I wouldn't have given this option much credence but after the Bills took down the Chiefs and Dolphins falling to the Titans, this option carries some weight now. The Dolphins final four games are against the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, and the Bills. As it stands right now, the Bills are only two games behind the Dolphins, which means Buffalo needs them to lose at least one more. That's also assuming if Buffalo doesn't lose another game leading into that week 18 matchup.
If the Bills win the division, we all know that's a path to the playoffs and hosting their first playoff game. But what are the odds of Buffalo pulling this off? Glad you asked, so here are two scenarios. Many fans believe Buffalo needs to win out and while that would certainly help, it's not a necessity.
1. Bills win the next three games
If the Bills defeat the Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots heading into week 18, they'll have a 38% chance of winning the division. If the Bills win out, including beating the Dolphins in that last game, Buffalo has an 84% chance of taking the division.
2. Lose to the Cowboys but win the next two
If the Bills lose to the Cowboys but defeat both the Chargers and Patriots, they'll go into that week 18 matchup with the Dolphins with a 15% chance of winning the division. Beat the Dolphins in that final game and their chances rise to 37%.
The moral of the story here is to win out and the Buffalo Bills likely win the AFC East for the fourth consecutive time and host a playoff game. Lose just one of the next three and those odds are very unlikely and wildcard is the most likely road the Bills take the playoffs.