Bills vs. Dolphins prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 18

Oct 1, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass as
Oct 1, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass as / Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

The final game of the 2023 NFL season is a doozy as the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins play on Sunday Night Football with the AFC East on the line.

The Bills will already have a playoff spot clinched by the time the game kicks off if the Steelers lose to the Ravens or the Jaguars lose to the Titans. If both those teams win, the Bills will be in a situation where a win will give them the AFC East and the No. 2 seed in the AFC but a loss will have them miss the playoffs entirely.

The drama is palpable.

If you want to get my best bet for all 16 NFL Week 18 games, check out this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets".

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on the game including odds, key players, and my best bet.

If you want to get in on the action, you should place your bets at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you do so by clicking the link below, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager.

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Bills vs. Dolphins odds, spread, and total

Bills vs. Dolphins betting trends

  • Bills are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games
  • The UNDER is 8-4 in the Bills' last 12 games
  • Bills are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 games vs. Dolphins
  • Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games
  • Dolphins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games
  • The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams
  • Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC East opponents

Bills vs. Dolphins injury reports

Buffalo Bills injury report

  • Micah Hyde - S - Questionable
  • Leonard Floyd - DE - Questionable
  • Justin Shorter - WR - IR
  • Damar Hamlin - S - Questionable

Miami Dolphins injury report

  • Tyreek Hill - WR - Questionable
  • Jaylen Waddle - WR - Questionable
  • De'Von Achane - RB - Questionable
  • Raheem Mostert - RB - Questionable
  • David Long Jr. - LB - Questionable

Bills vs. Dolphins how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, January 7
  • Game Time: 8:20 pm EST
  • Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): NBC
  • Buffalo Bills Record: 10-6
  • Miami Dolphins Record: 11-5

Bills vs. Dolphins key players to watch

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen: The Bills quarterback had arguably his best start of the season in their 48-20 win against the Dolphins back in Week 4, completing 21-of-25 passes for 320 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. If he can have another performance like that, the Bills are going to soar to a victory and the AFC East crown.

Miami Dolphins

De'Von Achane: Not enough people are talking about how De'Von Achane is averaging a mind-blowing 8.0 yards on 93 carries this season. Outside of Tyreek Hill, he might just be the best offensive weapon this team has when he's healthy. It's going to be interesting to see how they utilize him in this game as well as the postseason.

Bills vs. Dolphins prediction and pick

I know the UNDER isn't the most exciting bet to place for the final game of the season with this much on the line, but I think it's the right bet to make.

These two defenses have improved by leaps and bounds in the second half of the season. Dating back to Week 10, the Bills and Dolphins are fourth and ninth in opponent EPA per play and fifth and 10th in opponent success rate.

Early in the season, the defense was the weakness for both of these squads, but they've improved significantly as the season progressed.

With so much on the line for both teams, I expect a calculated game plan for both teams that may just result in a defensive battle.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!