Bills vs. Chiefs prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 14

Breaking down the odds, trends, and best bet prediction for Week 14 AFC action in the NFL between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.

Oct 16, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) talks with
Oct 16, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) talks with / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
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The Buffalo Bills are fresh off their BYE week and will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a pivotal game for both teams.

With how close the AFC Playoff race is, this game is pivotal for both teams. The Chiefs need to win this game to stay alive for a BYE in the playoffs whereas the Bills can ill-afford to lose another game if they want to avoiding the postseason all together.

Check out this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets" to find out my best bet for every single game set to take place in Week 14.

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on this game, including my best bet.

If you want to bet on the Bills tonight, I recommend doing so at Caesars Sportsbook. If you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive your first bet on Caesars, up to $1,000!

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Bills vs. Chiefs odds, spread, and total

Bills vs. Chiefs betting trends

  • Bills are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the Bills' last five games
  • Bills are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games vs. CHiefs
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in the Chiefs' last eight games
  • The UNDER is 7-1 in the Chiefs' last eight home games
  • Chiefs are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 games vs. AFC East opponents

Bills vs. Chiefs injury reports

Buffalo Bills injury report

  • Taylor Rapp - S - Questionable
  • Dane Jackson - CB - Questionable

Kansas City Chiefs injury report

  • Jerick McKinnon - RB - Questionable
  • Bryan Cook - S - Questionable
  • Donovan Smith - OT - Questionable
  • Drue Tranquill - LB - Questionable
  • Nick Bolton - LB - IR

Bills vs. Chiefs how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, December 10
  • Game Time: 4:25pm et
  • Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Buffalo Bills Record: 6-6
  • Kansas City Chiefs Record: 8-6

Bills vs. Chiefs key players to watch

Buffalo Bills

James Cook: The Chiefs have had issues stopping the run this season, ranking 28th in opponent yards per carry and 31st in opponent EPA per rush. That means the Bills would be smart to try to keep the ball on the ground, including using James Cook as much as possible. He averages 4.8 yards per carry this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Rashee Rice: The Chiefs' have made Rashee Rice their top target at receiver and if they're going to get hot, they need him to step up in a big way the rest of the season. He's currently second on the team in receptions (52) and receiving yards (591).

Bills vs. Chiefs prediction and pick

I may just continue to lose bets on the Bills in the most heartbreaking fashion on a weekly basis, but I just can't ignore the stats and the metrics show us the Bills are an elite team, despite their completely average record.

The Bills are fifth in Net Yards per Play (+0.6) and fourth in EPA per Play, outranking the Chiefs in both areas. The Chiefs' defense has been better than the Bills' defense this season, but they can be had on the ground. They rank 31st in opponent rush EPA and 28th in opponent yards per carry.

Buffalo has ran the ball well this season, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, good for seventh in the NFL, and with Josh Allen coming off a week of rest we may see him take off with his legs more often than he has in recent weeks.

I'll take the Bills and the points in this classic AFC showdown.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!