Bills projected to win AFC East based on 2024 win total prediction

In 2023, fans of the Buffalo Bills were treated to a pleasant end of the regular season as the team rattled off six of seven games to storm back and win the AFC East for the fourth consecutive season. 

However, postseason misery was once again right around the corner for the Bills after pulling away from the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round of the AFC playoffs. 

In the AFC Divisional matchup, Buffalo finally got to face the hated Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium. Instead of a momentous win to move closer to the Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes, in his first road playoff game, led Kansas City to a 27-24 win. The loss ended on a more heartbreaking note — a missed kick that sailed wide right to sink the Bills season. 

Hope, as always, springs eternal with a new league year, and the Bills, led by one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, are projected to be in the mix for another shot at the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy. 

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Five in a row for Buffalo? 

There’s a lot of optimism overall in the AFC East besides in Buffalo. Miami has made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and the Jets are expected to have Pro Bowl quarterback Aaron Rodgers leading the charge after missing all but three snaps last season. 

However, sportsbooks are predicting more of the same in the AFC East. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Buffalo is the odds-on favorite to repeat as division champs at +130 ($100 bet wins $130), which carries an implied probability of 43.48% that the Bills will win the AFC East for the fifth season in a row. 

Not far behind are the Dolphins (+220) and Jets (+250) while there’s little respect for the New England Patriots (+1700) and their incoming rebuild under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. 

Buffalo is tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for the third-highest win total (over/under) in the AFC at 10.5 behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (11.5).

Can Buffalo break through? 

As expected, Buffalo is near the top of the odds chart to win the AFC in 2024. According to FanDuel, the Bills are the third-favorite in the AFC behind Baltimore and Kansas City at +650 to win the conference, which carries an implied probability of 13.33% that Buffalo will reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993. 

Buffalo is the fourth favorite (behind Baltimore, Kansas City and San Francisco) to win the Super Bowl at +1200, per FanDuel. 

Josh Allen getting MVP love

It’s no secret that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is one of the most dynamic signal-callers in the NFL with his dual-threat ability. 

Last season, Allen threw for over 4,300 yards and 29 touchdowns while running for a career-high 15 scores. Allen was the only player besides Lamar Jackson to garner a first-place vote for the league’s Most Valuable Player Award.

Allen has been top-5 in MVP voting in three of the last four seasons. Is this the year he breaks through, as well? A quarterback-dominated award, Allen is listed by FanDuel as the second favorite to be named MVP in 2024 at +750 behind Pat Mahomes (+650).

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.