Bills' playoff odds have shocking value after upset win vs. Chiefs

it's time to bet on the Bills to make the playoffs after beating the Chiefs in Week 14

Dec 10, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates with
Dec 10, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates with / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
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It's been a rollercoaster of a season for the Buffalo Bills to say the least, but they finally had a break go their way against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 when Kadarius Toney was called offside for what could've been the game winning play.

That play might not have only saved the Bills' season, but it may also serve as a sign that things are starting to turn around for this team. They're still alive in the playoff hunt and their bad luck which has caused a string of heartbreaking losses, may finally be over.

They're now one of six teams who are sitting at 7-6 (along with the 8-5 Browns) who are vying for a wild card spot in the AFC. If you're ready to believe this team can make a push for the postseason, now is the time to bet on them.

Bills Playoff Odds

After beating the Chiefs, the Bills' odds to make the playoffs sit at +118, which is an implied probability of 45.87%. A $100 bet on them to do so would profit you $118 if they're able to achieve it.

Let's take a look at where those odds stack up with the rest of the AFC:

AFC Playoff Odds

  • Ravens: N/A
  • Dolphins: N/A
  • Chiefs: N/A
  • Jaguars: -1800
  • Browns: -500
  • Texans: +110
  • Bills: +118
  • Colts: +118
  • Broncos: +134
  • Steelers: +210
  • Bengals: +300

Based on the betting odds, the Browns, Texans, and either the Bills or Colts would take up the three wild card spots in the AFC. The Steelers and Bengals have the longest odds of getting in amongst the six teams currently at 7-6. That's largely due to the difficulty of the remaining schedule for those two teams. The Steelers have three games against teams with winning records and the Bengals have all four of their remaining games against teams with remaining records.

The Colts, Broncos, and Texans all have easier remaining schedules than the Bills based on opponent's record, but I'd argue the Bills are by far the most talented of the final teams vying for a playoff spot.

As of writing this article, the Bills rank sixth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.5), fourth in EPA per Play, and 14th in opponent EPA per Play. Their record has been largely caused by ill-timed turnovers, penalties at the wrong time, and straight up bad luck.

It goes without saying that the Bills have to beat at least one of the Cowboys and Dolphins to close out the season without allowing games against the Patriots or Chargers to slip through their fingers.

A 3-1 record down the stretch will likely cause the wild card race to go to tiebreakers and who knows where the Bills will stand in that. A 4-0 record should certainly be enough to get them into the postseason and I have faith they can do exactly that.

If you do too, join me in betting on them to make the playoffs. All you have to do is click the link below to sign up for an account at FanDuel Sportsbook to bet on the Bills to make the playoffs. If you use the link below, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins!

Bet on the Bills at FanDuel now!


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!