3.) Buffalo loses tiebreaker to Baltimore, Miami, Kansas City and Houston
When it comes to beating the best competition, the Bills have had success to help them secure a high playoff seed. Since 2020, the Bills have been no lower than the third seed but have not had the best of luck in the postseason. Four of the toughest AFC teams the Bills will play in 2024 include the Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, and the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo will host the Chiefs and Dolphins and hit the road against the Ravens, Texans, and the Dolphins.
If the Bills want a legit shot at making the playoffs, they are going to need to win these potential tiebreaker games against these opponents. Losing these games could put the Bills at a big disadvantage in the playoffs if they have to play these teams in the postseason. All of these teams (except maybe the Dolphins) have a legit chance at hosting the Bills in the playoffs and Buffalo needs to do whatever they can to make them come to snowy Orchard Park.
2.) Buffalo beats Kansas City in regular season, loses to them in playoffs
This exact scenario has happened to the Bills in two of the last three seasons. In 2021, Buffalo rolled over Kansas City in a 38-20 regular season win and would then lose 42-36 in an overtime divisional round game in Arrowhead. Then it happened again this past season when the Bills defeated the Chiefs 20-17 in the regular season which eventually made the Chiefs travel to Buffalo in the playoffs to beat the Bills 27-24 after Tyler Bass missed a potential game-tying field goal. The Bills are hosting the Chiefs in the regular season for the first time since 2020 and the chance of them defeating the Chiefs in this game is very high. At the same time, if these two teams meet up again in the playoffs, it will be difficult to pick the Bills over the Chiefs just based on what history has shown us.