Going into the 2026 season, it sure seemed like the NFL set the Patriots up to fail in the first two months of the year. Not only were they playing several playoff teams right out of the gate, but there were no “cupcakes” on the schedule to give them easy wins (say, the Dolphins or the Jets).
But through three games, the Bills are 3-0 and are one of three unbeaten teams in the AFC. And while their schedule is still brutal for the next few weeks, it does let up once November and December arrive. However, the Bills are catching a few teams at the perfect time, including their next opponent, the New England Patriots.
The Patriots have the NFL’s worst offense through 3 weeks
The Patriots have been awful on offense to start the season and that might even be an understatement. Drake Maye has thrown one touchdown this season and has already thrown six interceptions, which is only two fewer than he threw during the entire 2025 season. He’s also lost two fumbles as the offense has had a really hard time sustaining any kind of drive.
Just how bad have things gotten in New England? Only 6.7 percent of their offensive drives have resulted in touchdowns, which is by far the worst in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. The next lowest is the Miami Dolphins, who come in at 10.7% (It’s also worth noting that the Dolphins just lost De’Von Achane for the season due to a significant knee injury, meaning he won’t play against the Bills in either of their upcoming contests).
One reason why the Patriots have struggled in the passing game is due to the lack of weapons. A.J. Brown was expected to solve a lot of their passing woes, but he suffered a high-ankle injury in Week 1 and is expected to miss another month. Without Brown, there just isn’t anyone in the passing game who is threatening whatsoever.
New England is currently last in the NFL in offensive DVOA and while that doesn’t guarantee the Bills will win in Week 4, it does show you how much of a struggle it’s been for the Patriots on that side of the ball. They are on pace to be one of the worst offenses in the last 40 years and that is certainly saying something considering how many bad quarterbacks have been on the field during that time.
If the Bills can take care of business in Week 4 against a clearly slumping team, they’ll have navigated through the hardest part of their schedule. A 4-0 start combined with several conference wins would be a great way for the Bills to ensure they’ll have multiple home playoff games this year. While it’s too early to worry about the playoffs, it does seem like things are finally breaking right for this team.
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