Josh Allen did not play well against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10. He turned the ball over twice, including a costly fumble that handed the ball back to the Dolphins later in the game. Allen had a chance to lead his team back to victory, and instead, he literally fumbled the game away.
Will he bounce back in a big Week 11 showdown with the 6-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or will Allen continue to struggle?
To determine our answer, it's important to consider another factor, running back James Cook. Cook has been the key to Allen's successes and failures in 2025. When Cook plays well, so does Allen. The Bills are 5-0 when Cook rushes for over 100 yards, and those have been some of Allen's best games. The Bills are 1-3 when Cook rushes for fewer than 100 yards, including arguably Allen's three worst performances, against the Falcons, Patriots, and Dolphins.
Tampa Bay has a solid rushing defense, that ranks 11th in the league in ground-yards-allowed-per-game. They are allowing 100.8 yards-per-game. That does not bode well for Cook, who would need to account for every single Bills rushing yard in order to eclipse the 100-yard marker, if the Tampa Bay defense plays to it's average.
Tampa Bay did just allow 166 rushing yards against the Patriots, so it is possible to run the ball against the Buccaneers. They also allowed 164 rushing yards against the Lions. Perhaps now is the time for Buffalo to strike.
Based on Tampa's recent struggles against good rushing attacks, James Cook should be able to ecplise the 100-yard mark. That means Allen likely plays well as well.
Can Josh Allen put on an MVP-like performance vs. Bucs?
Tampa Bay has played almost exclusively close games in 2025, and that will likely continue. Josh Allen will keep the Bills in the game, but in the end, it might come down to which quarterback is able to finish with a more clutch final drive. That is where Allen shined last year, and it's where he will shine against Tampa Bay.
Allen will complete 65% of his throws for 225 yards and two touchdowns against Tampa Bay. Those might look like average numbers, but Allen will also cap off the game with a game-winning drive. The Bills will win by two points, thanks to Allen's late-game heroics, and order will be restored in Buffalo.