The offseason buzz is growing louder by the week. And that buzz is for second-year wide receiver Keon Coleman, who the Bills are hoping takes a big step forward in Year 2. Coming off a 29-catch, 556-yard season, the Bills are anticipating Coleman becoming a more reliable option in the offense and developing as the No. 2 receiver behind Khalil Shakir. But for that to happen, Coleman will need to clean up a few major weaknesses in his game.
In a recent article by Bradley Locker of Pro Football Focus, he wrote about his favorite breakout candidates for the 2025 season. That list included Coleman, who Locker believes could become a dominant deep threat in Year 2. But before the breakout season happens, he wrote about what Coleman needs to work on before he can be a reliable target in the passing offense:
"Assuming Coleman can clean up his catch rate — his 13.5% drop rate was the eighth-highest among receivers with 50-plus targets — then his play should only improve. Coleman may not be a separating whiz, as he sat in the 0th percentile in separation rate and the second percentile against single coverage, but his abilities as a deep threat and with the ball in his hands should render him one of Josh Allen’s top targets."Bradley Locker, Pro Football Focus
There are plenty of receivers in the NFL who don’t separate well and are still are productive weapons. That list includes A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, Drake London, and Mike Evans, who all finished near the bottom of the league in average separation via the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
The biggest difference between those four receivers and Coleman is that they don’t drop very many passes. According to Pro Football Reference, Coleman had four drops on 57 targets. And the fact that his overall catch percentage was just 50.9 percent shows that he really needs to improve in that area.
Drops can tend to be fluky for wide receivers, and they aren’t overly predictive year-over-year, but this can’t be a trend for Coleman moving forward. If he’s not going to create a ton of separation, he needs to be a reliable pass catcher who Josh Allen can rely on in big spots. That just wasn't the case enough during his rookie season.
If Coleman can clean up the drops and still manage to be a big-play threat, he’s going to add a ton of value to the offense this year. And with Mack Hollins leaving in free agency, there are more snaps available for him to become that player. Coleman should be able to replicate what Gabe Davis did during his prime years in Buffalo, but Coleman is the more talented player and is much more dynamic after the catch.
Assuming he can clean up some of the warts in his game, there is no reason why he can’t be a breakout star for the Bills this year. And if that happens, he could single-handedly be the player that takes the Bills over the hump in 2025.